Morgan Stanley stock forecast: scenarios, cash and value
The weighted forecast is $182.46 in October 2027, including dividends, a 3% return. It hinges on durable advisor-led relationships and sustained capital returns.
Where could Morgan Stanley's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is $182.46 in October 2027, a 3% return including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches $202.76, a 20% return including dividends. The forecast assigns 25% to the bear case. The base case carries 55%, and the bull case 20%.
The weighted forecast offers moderate upside, but the range of outcomes is wide. It puts the shares at $182.46 in October 2027, including dividends, a 3% total return. The October 2028 value is $190.89, a 10% return. The October 2029 value is $202.76, a 20% return. At the last date, the bear case is $131.89 and the bull case is $279.10. Today's reference price is $181.60.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 152.00 (-14 %) | 138.72 (-19 %) | 131.89 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 186.92 (+6 %) | 196.57 (+14 %) | 207.21 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 208.27 (+17 %) | 240.48 (+38 %) | 279.10 (+63 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 182.46 (+3 %) | 190.89 (+10 %) | 202.76 (+20 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Morgan Stanley?
The bear case would gain credibility in 2027–2029 if IPO and workplace assets leave when lockups expire, or fail to convert into retained advice relationships. Quieter issuance and trading would weaken Institutional Securities, while higher deposit costs or compensation would pressure Wealth margins and buybacks.
The base case would strengthen if the next-12-month EPS baseline holds from October 2027, lending restores Wealth net interest income and advisor-led flows continue through October 2029. The bull case would gain support if conversion and retention become visible, funding costs stabilize from 2027 onward, and institutional market share sustains capital generation.
How much cash does Morgan Stanley really make?
Morgan Stanley’s conventional free cash flow gives a poor picture because balance-sheet movements are part of its operating business.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | -17,889 | 1,362 | -33,536 | -6,397 | 33,971 |
| − Capital spending | 2,898 | 3,462 | 3,412 | 3,078 | 2,308 |
| = Free cash flow | -20,787 | -2,100 | -36,948 | -9,475 | 31,663 |
| − Stock pay | 1,926 | 1,622 | 1,709 | 1,875 | 2,085 |
| = Real free cash flow | -22,713 | -3,722 | -38,657 | -11,350 | 29,578 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -32.2% | -6.0% | -71.4% | -21.1% | 49.5% |
What this means. The cash figures include Morgan Stanley’s bank subsidiaries, so they also reflect lending activity and are not just the company’s investment business.
What does an investor pay for Morgan Stanley today?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 181.605 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.3x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -7.3% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.5% |
What this means. The whole-business value is much higher than the stock-market value because it adds debt and includes the company's bank subsidiaries, while subtracting cash.