HP stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: HP’s weighted forecast implies an 11% total return by October 2029. It hinges on durable cash generation, more profitable PC growth and a print transition that contains supplies erosion.
Where could HP’s shares be by October 2029?
HP’s weighted forecast implies an 11% total return by October 2029, hinging on durable cash generation, more profitable PC growth and a print transition that contains supplies erosion. At October 2027, the weighted price is $27.13. That implies a -9% return. At October 2029, it is $30.82. That implies a +11% return.
HP’s August 26, 2026 guidance calls for fiscal 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.19–$3.29. It forecasts free cash flow of $3.0–$3.2 billion, with estimated tariff refunds contributing $0.19 per share to the EPS outlook. Case probabilities are bear 30%, base 52% and bull 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 18.57 (-37 %) | 13.68 (-49 %) | 9.80 (-57 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 29.08 (-3 %) | 31.65 (+9 %) | 34.24 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 35.79 (+19 %) | 45.19 (+53 %) | 55.99 (+92 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 27.13 (-9 %) | 28.69 (-0 %) | 30.82 (+11 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of all three cases, not a fourth outcome, so it can be below the base case because the bear case is included.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for HP?
Normal operating profit rises to $3,150 million in 2027 and $3,250 million in 2028. It reaches $3,350 million in 2029. The bear case falls from $2,700 million to $2,500 million, then $2,400 million. The bull case rises from $3,400 million to $3,800 million, then $4,200 million. The base reflects stabilization after FY2026 guidance; the bear reflects a 16% unit decline and a 4.6% Personal Systems margin, while the bull requires AI-PC demand, cost relief and savings to improve margins.
How much cash does HP really make?
Stock compensation requires a further economic adjustment. HP adds the expense back because no cash leaves immediately, but employees receive shares that dilute existing owners or require repurchases. Subtracting fiscal 2025 stock compensation of $522 million leaves real free cash flow of $2,278 million, or 4.1% of revenue. HP’s own count was $2,931 million because it makes a different lease adjustment.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,697 | 3,749 | 3,571 | 4,463 | 6,409 |
| − Capital spending | 897 | 592 | 593 | 765 | 582 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,800 | 3,157 | 2,978 | 3,698 | 5,827 |
| − Stock pay | 522 | 452 | 438 | 343 | 330 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,278 | 2,705 | 2,540 | 3,355 | 5,497 |
What this means. The company’s own free cash flow is usually higher because it adds back money invested through financing leases, while our count treats that as spending; in 2021, its count was lower because it left out money from an Oracle legal case.
What does HP’s stock price pay for in earnings and cash?
Price-to-earnings, or P/E, divides the share price by earnings per share, which is company profit divided among its shares. Investors pay 11.9 times HP’s last twelve months of earnings and 9.6 times its expected earnings for the next twelve months. The lower forward figure depends on improved earnings, but buybacks can also raise EPS without raising total profit. HP spent $300 million repurchasing approximately 12.2 million shares in Q3 FY2026. Each remaining share can then represent a larger part of the company.
| Today (Oct 21, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 31.21 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 11.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 9.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.1% |
What this means. The price-to-book measure is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns on its balance sheet.