Dell stock forecast
Dell’s weighted forecast is $513.55 in October 2027. It hinges on AI demand becoming durable profit and collected cash.
Where could Dell’s shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted forecast puts Dell below today’s $586.28 share price at every date. It reaches $513.55 in October 2027, $486.67 in October 2028 and $470.75 in October 2029, including dividends.
The weighted value is $513.55 in October 2027, a return of -12% including dividends. It is $470.75 in October 2029, a return of -18% including dividends. The bear case carries 30% probability. The base case carries 50%. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 328.31 (-44 %) | 184.34 (-68 %) | 137.16 (-75 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 522.95 (-10 %) | 488.88 (-16 %) | 426.71 (-26 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 767.89 (+31 %) | 934.65 (+60 %) | 1081.27 (+86 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 513.55 (-12 %) | 486.67 (-16 %) | 470.75 (-18 %) |
What has to go right for Dell’s forecast?
Normal operating profit is $21.9 billion in October 2027, then moderates in the following years. The first-year figure reflects the guidance anchor after allowing for a GAAP-to-adjusted gap. Later moderation reflects lower AI growth, with storage and commercial PCs providing balance. The bear case starts at $19.4 billion and falls to $14.5 billion in 2028. The bull case starts at $25 billion and reaches $30 billion by 2029. The bear reflects delayed sites, lower margins and weak collections; the bull assumes faster shipments, repeat orders and operating leverage. Inventory nearly doubled to $21.290 billion by July, while receivables also rose, making both outcomes credible.
How much cash does Dell really make?
Free cash flow begins with cash from operations and subtracts capital spending. Dell’s own measure goes further by removing financing-receivable and leased-equipment effects. Stock compensation also matters economically, because paying employees with shares transfers ownership even when it is not a cash payment.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 11,185 | 4,521 | 8,676 | 3,565 | |
| − Capital spending | 2,633 | 2,652 | 2,756 | 3,003 | |
| = Free cash flow | 8,552 | 1,869 | 5,920 | 562 | |
| − Stock pay | 723 | 785 | 878 | 931 | 808 |
| = Real free cash flow | 7,829 | 1,084 | 5,042 | -369 |
What does an investor pay for Dell?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how many dollars investors pay for one dollar of annual profit. A trailing P/E uses the last twelve months; a forward P/E uses an estimate of future profit. GAAP is the formal accounting rulebook, so GAAP earnings can differ from adjusted earnings. Dell’s FY27 GAAP earnings-per-share guidance is $24.37, but that fiscal period is not identical to every forward estimate. The lower forward P/E therefore depends on profits arriving.
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 586.28 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 34.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 22.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.1% |