Home Depot dividend: cash coverage and outlook
Home Depot’s forecast dividend is $9.32 per share in 2027, rising to $9.70 by 2029. Its fiscal 2025 free cash flow was $12,646 million against $9,152 million of dividends, but acquisitions meant post-investment cash did not cover both acquisitions and distributions.
How much does Home Depot pay in dividends?
The base dividend is $9.32 per share in 2027, rising to $9.51 and $9.70. The bear case holds it at $9.32, while the bull case reaches $9.88 and $10.47. The base path fits a long record of uninterrupted quarterly payments, but also recognizes that the latest increase was only 1.3% and free cash flow fell 22.5%.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares (millions) | 999 (1,002 / 994) | 991 (1,001 / 980) | 981 (1,000 / 962) |
| Dividends per share | 9.32 (9.32 / 9.32) | 9.51 (9.32 / 9.88) | 9.70 (9.32 / 10.47) |
| Net debt | 48,125 (51,204 / 48,073) | 47,689 (52,814 / 47,369) | 47,404 (53,790 / 46,309) |
Is Home Depot's dividend covered by its cash?
After $3,679 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $12,646 million. After $522 million of stock-based pay, the analytical “real free cash flow” was $12,124 million. Net acquisition payments were $5,410 million, while dividends were $9,152 million. Cash generation was therefore substantial, but the year’s post-investment cash did not cover both acquisitions and distributions.
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 12,646 | 16,325 | 17,946 | 11,496 | 14,005 |
| − Dividends paid | 9,152 | 8,929 | 8,383 | 7,789 | 6,985 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 649 | 7,951 | 6,696 | 14,809 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 3,494 | 6,747 | 1,612 | ||
| − Acquisitions | 5,410 | 17,644 | 1,514 | 0 | 421 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 72.4% | 58.7% | 91.0% | 126.0% | 155.6% |
What could change Home Depot's dividend?
The first test is FY2026 execution against management’s sales growth, comparable-sales and operating-margin guidance. Transactions recovering alongside average tickets would move the forecast toward the base or bull cases; another period of falling transactions would support the bear case.
Capital allocation is the next test. Repurchases resuming by the expected date would support the base case, while larger purchases would require stronger cash generation after investment, dividends and debt reduction. Failure to reduce leverage would keep the share count and multiple closer to the bear case.
What is Home Depot's dividend yield today?
At $290.74 a share, Home Depot asks investors to pay for established earnings while accepting the burden of acquisition debt.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 290.74 |
| Market value (calculated) | 290,068.28 |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.2% |