Sherwin-Williams stock forecast
The weighted Sherwin-Williams scenario is $334.31 in October 2029. Sherwin-Williams' forecast hinges on converting an 8% price increase into durable cash growth without sacrificing volume.
Where could Sherwin-Williams shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted value is $308.45 in October 2027, a 6% loss including dividends. It is $321.83 in October 2028, a 1% loss. By October 2029, it reaches $334.31, a 4% gain. The last-date range is $190.08 to $521.22. Today's reference price is $332.50.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 215.79 (-34%) | 198.69 (-38%) | 190.08 (-40%) |
| Base | 50% | 325.30 (-1%) | 336.58 (+3%) | 346.08 (+7%) |
| Bull | 20% | 405.32 (+23%) | 469.68 (+43%) | 521.22 (+60%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 308.45 (-6%) | 321.83 (-1%) | 334.31 (+4%) |
What this means. The Weighted row is the average value after giving more influence to cases with higher probabilities; it is not another possible case.
What has to go right for Sherwin-Williams, and what could go wrong?
The base reflects normalized 2026 guidance near its midpoint and 2027 consensus revenue of $26.26 billion. It assumes moderate growth thereafter. The bear reflects persistent weak housing and industrial demand, while the bull assumes volume recovery, successful realization of the 8% Paint Stores increase, and profitable Suvinil integration. Q2 already showed low-single-digit volume growth, but raw-material inflation pressured gross margin.
The bear case requires weak housing and industrial demand to persist, customers to resist price increases, and margins to contract. Debt maturities then restrict buybacks while confidence in earnings falls. The price reaches $215.79 in October 2027 and $190.08 by October 2029. Its probability is 30% because 2025 net income fell despite sales growth, although maintenance demand and recent volume growth limit the downside case.
How much cash does Sherwin-Williams really make?
Operating cash exceeded net income in 2025. That can happen because depreciation and amortization reduce accounting profit without requiring a new cash payment in the same period. After capital spending, conventional free cash flow was $2,654.0 million. Deducting stock compensation produces an analytical “real free cash flow” measure because shareholders ultimately bear that compensation through dilution.
Capital spending fell from $1,070.0 million in 2024 to $797.6 million in 2025. That reduction supplied $272.4 million of the improvement in conventional free cash flow. Some spending supported headquarters, technology, stores and expansion; some maintained existing operations. Sherwin-Williams does not disclose enough detail to treat the entire reduction as permanently distributable cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,451.6 | 3,153.2 | 3,521.9 | 1,919.9 | 2,244.6 |
| − Capital spending | 797.6 | 1,070.0 | 888.4 | 644.5 | 372.0 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,654.0 | 2,083.2 | 2,633.5 | 1,275.4 | 1,872.6 |
| − Stock pay | 123.5 | 138.1 | 115.9 | 99.7 | 97.7 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,530.5 | 1,945.1 | 2,517.6 | 1,175.7 | 1,774.9 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 10.7% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 8.9% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is lower because it subtracts cash dividends, while our count does not; our real free cash flow then subtracts shares given to employees.
What does an investor pay for Sherwin-Williams today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 332.50 |
| Market value (calculated) | 80,717.1 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 93,312.0 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 30.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.1% |
What this means. The enterprise value is a little too low because it leaves out finance leases, which are another form of debt.