Grainger dividend
Grainger’s forecast dividend per share rises to $9.75, then $10.75, and reaches $11.75. Grainger’s cash has not always covered the dividend: payouts sometimes exceeded free cash flow.
What does Grainger pay its shareholders over time?
Base dividends per share rise to $9.75 and then $10.75. They reach $11.75 as growth decelerates from recent increases. The bear case holds at $9.25 after a pause, while the bull case reaches $13.25 through faster increases. The base reflects uninterrupted historical increases and strong cash-flow guidance, while the bear recognizes working-capital and capital-spending pressure.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 8.85 | 8.04 | 7.33 | 6.79 | 6.40 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 21.77 | 24.51 | 16.97 | 11.78 | 13.31 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 6.85 | 2.05 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is higher because it does not subtract the value of shares given to employees as pay; we subtract it because those new shares reduce what each existing share gets.
Is Grainger’s dividend covered by its cash?
Grainger’s payouts sometimes exceeded the free cash flow generated in the same year. That is possible because the company can draw down cash already on its balance sheet, issue debt, or accept a smaller cash reserve. Dividends go to all shareholders; buybacks return cash to shareholders who sell their shares and reduce the number of shares left outstanding.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 1,331 | 1,570 | 1,586 | 1,077 | 682 |
| − Dividends paid | 425 | 394 | 367 | 347 | 334 |
| − Share buybacks | 1,045 | 1,201 | 850 | 602 | 695 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 343 | 105 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 110.4% | 101.6% | 76.7% | 88.1% | 150.9% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is slightly higher because it adds borrowing fees back, while our count uses the debt amounts shown on the balance sheet.
What could change Grainger’s dividend?
The base case would gain support if raised 2026 sales and EPS guidance converts into steady continuing-business growth, while operating cash flow funds capex, dividends, and buybacks.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,184 (2,000 / 2,311) | 2,310 (1,958 / 2,508) | 2,438 (1,976 / 2,731) |
| Shares (millions) | 46.20 (46.30 / 46.20) | 45.50 (45.70 / 45.40) | 44.90 (45.20 / 44.70) |
| Dividends per share | 9.75 (9.25 / 10.25) | 10.75 (9.25 / 11.75) | 11.75 (9.25 / 13.25) |
| Price to earnings | 28.00 (24.00 / 31.00) | 27.00 (22.00 / 32.00) | 26.00 (20.00 / 33.00) |