Fastenal stock forecast
Fastenal’s weighted price reaches $53.70 in October 2029, with a 25% bear case, 55% base case, and 20% bull case. It hinges on earnings growth overcoming valuation normalization.
Where could Fastenal’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $50.61 in October 2027. Including dividends, that is a -1% return. The weighted price is $52.40 in October 2028. The return is then +5%. The weighted price reaches $53.70 in October 2029, for a +10% return.
At October 2029, the bear outcome is $34.05. The bull outcome is $75.22. Today’s reference price is $52.00. The bear probability is 25%. The base probability is 55%. The bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 39.33 (-22 %) | 35.69 (-27 %) | 34.05 (-29 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 52.12 (+2 %) | 53.85 (+8 %) | 54.80 (+12 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 60.55 (+19 %) | 69.31 (+38 %) | 75.22 (+52 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 50.61 (-1 %) | 52.40 (+5 %) | 53.70 (+10 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the estimated average value after giving more influence to the base case because it is considered more likely.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Fastenal?
Base earnings rise from $1,616 million to $1,765 million. They reach $1,905 million in the third year. This reflects contract-customer growth, larger-site productivity and operating leverage, while margins remain near recent normalized levels. The bear path is $1,411 million initially and $1,414 million thereafter. It reaches $1,450 million as manufacturing demand, customer mix and price-cost pressure weaken margins. The bull path starts at $1,652 million and reaches $1,889 million. It ends at $2,150 million only if installations, capacity and collections all improve.
How much cash does Fastenal really make?
Capital spending was $245.3 million, leaving free cash flow of $1,050.6 million. Stock compensation absorbed another $8.4 million. On that basis, “real free cash flow” was $1,042.2 million because shares paid to employees still dilute shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,295.9 | 1,173.3 | 1,432.7 | 941.0 | 770.1 |
| − Capital spending | 245.3 | 226.5 | 172.8 | 173.8 | 156.6 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,050.6 | 946.8 | 1,259.9 | 767.2 | 613.5 |
| − Stock pay | 8.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 5.6 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,042.2 | 938.8 | 1,252.6 | 760.0 | 607.9 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher than ours because it leaves out 14.2 million dollars of cash spending that we count, making its result look better.
What does an investor pay for Fastenal today?
The P/E ratio divides the share price by earnings per share. Fastenal trades at 41.9 times its last twelve months’ earnings and 37.0 times expected earnings over the next twelve months. That gap implies roughly 13% earnings growth. Q3 sales grew 15.5%, while pricing contributed about 2.4 percentage points, so growth beyond pricing did much of the work.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 52.00 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 41.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 37.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is slightly lower than market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.