GSK dividend
GSK expected a 70p dividend for 2026, and its forecast takes dividends from £0.70 per share initially to £0.74 in the third year. In 2025, GSK's real free cash flow was £3,462 million, while shareholder distributions exceeded that cash measure.
How much does GSK pay per share over time?
GSK also returned capital through a £2 billion buyback completed in June 2026 and expected a 70p dividend for 2026. Those actions reduce the shares or cash available for future investment, so their value depends on the price paid and the opportunities forgone. GSK recycled other assets too: it retained a 78.3% economic interest in ViiV and received a $250 million special dividend, while licensing linerixibat generated $400 million upfront. Such proceeds support cash flow, but gains from disposals are not the same as recurring medicine sales. The final test is what this focused portfolio can earn.
The base dividend is £0.70 per share initially and £0.72 in the second year. It reaches £0.74 in the third, consistent with progressive policy but limited by investment needs. The bear case cuts it to £0.66 and then £0.60; the bull case raises it to £0.74 and then £0.78.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 138.80 | 62.20 | 119.90 | 109.20 | 81.80 |
| Real free cash flow per share | 84.09 | 57.22 | 76.72 | 72.97 | 57.43 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 62.28 | 59.01 | 54.66 | 84.89 | 98.69 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 19.51 |
Does GSK’s cash cover its dividend?
Revenue rose across the five-year period, with the 2022 jump shaped by the Haleon demerger and continuing-business presentation. Operating margin recovered in 2025 after the 2024 fall; reported and Core profit separate selected charges, and real free cash flow as a share of revenue, after investment and stock pay, recovered too. GSK’s own real free cash flow per share was 84.09p against diluted EPS of 138.80p. Shareholder distributions exceeded that cash measure.
Cash from operations was £7,741 million in 2025. After capital spending, lease payments and interest, the free-cash-flow measure used here was £3,836 million. Deducting stock-based pay produces “real free cash flow” of £3,462 million, because shares given to employees still dilute owners even though they are not a current cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 3,836 | 2,714 | 3,461 | 3,326 | 2,670 |
| − Dividends paid | 2,564 | 2,444 | 2,247 | 3,467 | 3,999 |
| − Share buybacks | 1,377 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 802 | ||||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 496 | 146 | 662 | 1,568 |
What could change GSK’s dividend?
The main risk is loss of exclusivity, when cheaper generic competitors can enter after a medicine’s protection ends. GSK expects this period for dolutegravir in 2028–2030. Its savings programme targets £1.9bn annually by 2029, but much of the money is intended to fund replacement medicines rather than become dividends.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 7,565 (7,148 / 7,700) | 7,725 (6,960 / 8,140) | 7,826 (6,508 / 8,550) |
| Dividends per share | 0.70 (0.70 / 0.70) | 0.72 (0.66 / 0.74) | 0.74 (0.60 / 0.78) |
| Price to earnings | 9.50 (8.00 / 11.00) | 9.50 (7.50 / 12.00) | 9.00 (7.00 / 13.00) |