GSK stock forecast
GSK's weighted forecast reaches 1,777.38p by October 2029. GSK's forecast hinges on replacing dolutegravir as HIV sales erode.
Where could GSK's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is 1,748.12p by October 2027. That implies a +4% total return including dividends. It is 1,777.38p by October 2029. That implies a +14% total return including dividends. The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case and 50% to base. The bull case carries 20%.
The weighted price is 1,748.12p by October 2027, a 4% return including dividends. It reaches 1,795.40p by October 2028, an 11% return, before easing to 1,777.38p by October 2029, a 14% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 1426.03 (-15 %) | 1300.77 (-18 %) | 1134.36 (-24 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 1792.88 (+6 %) | 1830.11 (+13 %) | 1755.80 (+13 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 2119.35 (+25 %) | 2450.58 (+48 %) | 2795.87 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1748.12 (+4 %) | 1795.40 (+11 %) | 1777.38 (+14 %) |
What has to go right for GSK, and what could go wrong?
Base earnings rise to £7,565m in the first forecast year and £7,725m in the second. They reach £7,826m in the third. The underlying case assumes modest revenue growth and slightly lower normalized margins as mature products weaken. This is below management’s ambition of more than £40bn of risk-adjusted sales in 2031, because analyst consensus is £36.446bn.
The bear case falls from £7,148m to £6,960m and then £6,508m. It assumes weak replacement sales and faster HIV erosion. The bull case rises from £7,700m to £8,140m and then £8,550m, assuming launches gain patients, vaccines remain strong and savings improve operating leverage.
How much cash does GSK really make?
Cash from operations was £7,741 million in 2025. After capital spending, lease payments and interest, the free-cash-flow measure used here was £3,836 million. Deducting stock-based pay produces “real free cash flow” of £3,462 million, because shares given to employees still dilute owners even though they are not a current cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,741 | 6,554 | 6,768 | 6,634 | 6,277 |
| − Capital spending | 2,985 | 2,982 | 2,344 | 2,258 | 2,654 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,836 | 2,714 | 3,461 | 3,326 | 2,670 |
| − Stock pay | 374 | 344 | 307 | 346 | 343 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,462 | 2,370 | 3,154 | 2,980 | 2,327 |
What does an investor pay for GSK today?
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1,750.00 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.83x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 9.25x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.4% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.8% |