Ferguson earnings: guidance and next results
Ferguson's next results are expected on November 5, 2026. Watch whether Ferguson's project shipments turn into collections.
What has Ferguson guided for 2026?
For the year to December 2026, management guides to mid-single-digit sales growth and a 9.5%–9.8% adjusted operating margin, excluding FloWorks. It expects $200 million of interest expense and $375–$425 million of capital spending. The guidance uses a 26% adjusted tax rate. Its medium-term ambition is more than $40 billion in revenue and more than $4 billion in adjusted operating profit. The target margin is above 10%.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | Year to Dec 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | ||
| Adjusted operating margin | Year to Dec 2026 | 9.5% | 9.8% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Interest expense | Year to Dec 2026 | 200 | 200 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Capital expenditures | Year to Dec 2026 | 375 | 425 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Adjusted effective tax rate | Year to Dec 2026 | 26.0% | 26.0% | Aug 10, 2026 |
Has Ferguson kept its past promises?
Ferguson has sensible measures and evidence of reducing its share count, but shareholders should ask whether the award adjustment was a one-time repair or the beginning of negotiable performance targets. That is the clearest answer to whether management is on their side: the structure points toward alignment, while discretion remains the risk.
| Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock pay | 28 | 49 | 51 | 57 | 77 |
| Stock pay, % of revenue (calculated) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Stock pay, % of free cash flow (calculated) | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
| Share buybacks | 948 | 634 | 908 | 1,637 | 400 |
| Buybacks minus stock pay (calculated) | 920 | 585 | 857 | 1,580 | 323 |
| Diluted shares | 199.2 | 203.5 | 207.2 | 218.9 | 224.8 |
What this means. The diluted share count can be higher than the year-end share count because it includes shares that could be created later.
How has Ferguson's revenue and profit trended?
Revenue rose from $8,363 million in June 2025 to $8,751 million in June 2026. Operating income rose from $842 million to $893 million, while diluted EPS rose from $3.21 to $3.43. The progress was genuine, but reported operating-profit growth benefited from lower restructuring charges. Adjusted operating profit grew only 2.9%.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,751 | 7,472 | 7,495 | 8,245 | 8,363 | 7,213 | 7,234 | 7,736 |
| Gross margin | 31.0% | 31.0% | 30.6% | 31.3% | 31.2% | 30.7% | 29.7% | 31.0% |
| Operating income | 893 | 612 | 596 | 844 | 842 | 507 | 509 | 723 |
| Net income | 666 | 414 | 389 | 638 | 634 | 345 | 356 | 522 |
| EPS, diluted | 3.43 | 2.13 | 1.99 | 3.24 | 3.21 | 1.73 | 1.78 | 2.59 |
What this means. Free cash flow is negative in June 2026 because the company used more cash in daily operations and equipment spending than it brought in.
What should Ferguson watch in the next release?
The first check is revised guidance. Ferguson should distinguish growth from the existing business from growth supplied by FloWorks, and explain the related interest and integration costs.
The second check is cash. Higher project activity can require more inventory and customer credit before it produces collections. A reassuring result would connect shipments with cash receipts and explain the remaining stock investment. More orders alongside slower collections would keep the financing burden high.