Expedia Group stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts Expedia Group near today’s price by October 2029. Expedia Group’s forecast hinges on profitable growth becoming durable cash.
Where could Expedia Group’s shares be by October 2029?
The forecast's central message is that Expedia's shares lose ground through October 2028 before recovering to roughly today's level by October 2029. The probability-weighted prices are $204.63, $241.15 and $297.73, respectively, against today's $291.72. Including dividends, those outcomes represent returns of -29%, -16% and +4%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 26 % | 133.11 (-54 %) | 101.91 (-64 %) | 112.75 (-59 %) |
| Base | 56 % | 206.43 (-29 %) | 248.94 (-13 %) | 297.64 (+4 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 302.35 (+4 %) | 418.05 (+45 %) | 565.18 (+96 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 204.63 (-29 %) | 241.15 (-16 %) | 297.73 (+4 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Expedia Group?
Normal operating profit rises in the base case from $1,750 million to $2,150 million across the three dates. The path reflects higher room nights, B2B bookings and gradual operating leverage. Q2 gross bookings rose 12%, B2B bookings rose 21% and revenue rose 14%. The bear case falls from $1,450 million to $1,200 million before partial recovery, as weaker demand and costly discovery pressure margins. The bull case rises from $2,100 million to $3,050 million because direct conversion, advertising and partner growth produce stronger incremental profit. Expedia's revenue guidance of $16.05 billion to $16.22 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 1.5 to 1.75 points supports growth, but does not directly establish operating-income margins.
The bull case requires several gains together: better direct conversion, profitable advertising and partner growth, stronger Vrbo supply and repeat use. It reaches $302.35 first and $565.18 last. The probability is 18% because recent booking growth supports the possibility, but the material does not yet prove durable loyalty economics or full-cycle margin resilience.
How much cash does Expedia Group really make?
A stronger owner-oriented measure subtracts stock pay from free cash flow. Stock pay is not an additional cash outflow, but it compensates employees with ownership and can dilute existing shareholders. This produces “real free cash flow,” an analytical convention rather than Expedia’s measure. The specialist therefore separates cash earned from operations, cash temporarily held for future travel, and compensation paid with ownership.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,880 | 3,085 | 2,690 | 3,440 | 3,748 |
| − Capital spending | 770 | 756 | 846 | 662 | 673 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,110 | 2,329 | 1,844 | 2,778 | 3,075 |
| − Stock pay | 398 | 458 | 413 | 374 | 418 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,712 | 1,871 | 1,431 | 2,404 | 2,657 |
What this means. There is no gap between the company's free cash flow and ours because both subtract capital spending from cash from operations; our real free cash flow is lower because stock pay gives employees part of the company even though no cash was paid.
What does Expedia Group cost today?
The stock trades at 18.2x trailing earnings and 11.8x next-twelve-month earnings. The company’s free cash flow yield is 8.9%, falling to 7.7% after stock pay. Revenue growth and operating margin have improved, but the turn must survive marketing costs; room nights, ADR (average daily rate), and revenue margin separate volume, price and monetization, while buybacks reduced diluted shares and stock compensation diluted owners.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 291.72 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.7% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio is lower because it uses expected future profit, not profit the company has already earned.