Booking Holdings stock forecast
Booking Holdings has a weighted price of $183.68 in October 2027 and $240.79 in October 2029. Booking Holdings hinges on protecting booking economics while delivering growth, savings and profitable repeat bookings.
Where could Booking Holdings shares be in October 2029?
The weighted price is $183.68 in October 2027, implying a 15% return with dividends. It rises to $209.51 in October 2028, implying a 33% return. By October 2029, the weighted price reaches $240.79, implying a 53% return from today's $160.68.
The final-date range runs from $126.85 in the bear case to $391.77 in the bull case. That means a loss of 18% or a gain of 148%, with the bear case assigned 30% probability, the base 50%, and the bull 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 138.58 (-13 %) | 132.94 (-15 %) | 126.85 (-18 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 189.49 (+19 %) | 217.15 (+38 %) | 248.76 (+59 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 236.79 (+49 %) | 305.27 (+93 %) | 391.77 (+148 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 183.68 (+15 %) | 209.51 (+33 %) | 240.79 (+53 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case more or less influence based on its probability.
What has to go right for Booking Holdings?
Earnings rise in the base case from $8,436 million in October 2027 to $9,184 million in October 2028, then $10,022 million in October 2029. The path assumes mid-to-high-single-digit revenue growth, stable take rates and modest margin improvement from repeat bookings and transformation savings. Q2 2026 supported that direction: room nights rose 5%, gross bookings 9% and revenue 8%.
The bear case uses $7,319 million in 2027 and $7,450 million in 2028, reaching only $7,595 million in 2029. It assumes slower trips, higher marketing and payment costs, and weaker discovery economics. The bull case reaches $8,700 million, $9,900 million and $11,253 million as direct demand, Connected Trip and savings improve margins. Those outcomes remain unproven, particularly for the newly launched Vayo initiative.
How much cash does Booking Holdings really make?
Free cash flow means operating cash after spending on long-lived assets such as equipment and software. Booking’s operating cash less capital spending leaves a large cash surplus because the company distributes travel supplied by hotels, airlines and other providers rather than building those assets itself.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,409 | 8,323 | 7,344 | 6,554 | 2,820 |
| − Capital spending | 322 | 429 | 345 | 368 | 304 |
| = Free cash flow | 9,087 | 7,894 | 6,999 | 6,186 | 2,516 |
| − Stock pay | 617 | 599 | 530 | 404 | 376 |
| = Real free cash flow | 8,470 | 7,295 | 6,469 | 5,782 | 2,140 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is one million dollars lower in 2025 and 2024 only because of rounding, not because it actually had less cash.
What does an investor pay for Booking Holdings today?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 160.68 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.0% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than the recorded value of what it owns.