Airbnb stock forecast
Airbnb's weighted forecast reaches $192.53 in October 2029, up 10%. It hinges on whether marketplace growth converts into earnings without a material margin break.
Where could Airbnb's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is $155.71 in October 2027, down 11% with dividends. It reaches $173.92 in October 2028, which is flat with dividends. It reaches $192.53 in October 2029, up 10%.
The forecast assigns 25% to the bear. The base receives 55%. The bull receives 20%, because continued marketplace growth is more likely than either sustained deterioration or a fully proven new-product cycle.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 110.39 (-37 %) | 104.99 (-40 %) | 102.75 (-41 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 161.47 (-7 %) | 173.77 (-0 %) | 183.14 (+5 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 196.53 (+13 %) | 260.50 (+49 %) | 330.56 (+90 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 155.71 (-11 %) | 173.92 (-0 %) | 192.53 (+10 %) |
What this means. The Weighted row is the average value after giving more influence to the Base case because it is more likely, rather than a separate prediction.
What has to go right for Airbnb, and what could go wrong?
The bear earnings are $2,864m in 2027 and $3,127m in 2028. They reach $3,400m in 2029. Its growth fades from 10% to 8% and then 7%, while margins stay below base because regulation, fee migration and product support absorb value. The bull earns $3,459m, $4,203m and $5,053m as growth runs from 17% to 15% and margins rise from 21% to 23%. That requires AI savings and new products to produce repeat, profitable bookings, which remains unproven.
The bull case needs direct demand, better conversion, AI support savings and profitable repeat use of Services and Experiences. It gives $196.53 first and $330.56 last. Its 20% probability reflects strong upside, but also the absence of full repeat-use and contribution-margin proof.
How much cash does Airbnb really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending. Airbnb produced $4,646 million of operating cash flow in 2025. After $33 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $4,613 million. Hosts finance the properties, so Airbnb does not need hotel-like spending on buildings; its staff and technology costs remain expenses in the income statement.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,646 | 4,518 | 3,884 | 3,430 | 2,313 |
| − Capital spending | 33 | 34 | 47 | 25 | 25 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,613 | 4,484 | 3,837 | 3,405 | 2,288 |
| − Stock pay | 1,592 | 1,407 | 1,120 | 930 | 899 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,021 | 3,077 | 2,717 | 2,475 | 1,389 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 24.7% | 27.7% | 27.4% | 29.5% | 23.2% |
What this means. The company's free cash flow looks higher than the cash truly left for shareholders because paying employees with shares uses no cash today but gives away part of the company, so we subtract it.
What does an investor pay today for Airbnb?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 174.32 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 39.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 27.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.9% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.0% |
What this means. Enterprise value can be lower than market value because it subtracts the company’s cash and short-term investments.