ENGIE stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: On 26 October 2026, ENGIE's weighted price is €25.06 in October 2029, a 26% gain including dividends. It hinges on UKPN and new projects lifting earnings enough to offset debt and execution risk.
Where could ENGIE's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is €21.68 in October 2027, a 1% loss including dividends. It rises to €23.28 in October 2028, a 12% gain, and €25.06 in October 2029, a 26% gain. The range in October 2029 is €12.35 to €39.11 against today’s €23.20.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 16.30 (-25 %) | 14.25 (-29 %) | 12.35 (-33 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 22.03 (+1 %) | 24.31 (+17 %) | 26.70 (+33 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 28.70 (+31 %) | 33.70 (+59 %) | 39.11 (+90 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 21.68 (-1 %) | 23.28 (+12 %) | 25.06 (+26 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it does not mean the share price is expected to follow the base case.
What has to go right for ENGIE's forecast, and what could go wrong?
The bear case falls to €4.4 billion, €4.1 billion and €3.8 billion as B2B weakness, high financing costs and slow commissioning compound. B2B operating profit already fell organically by 39.4% in H1 2026, while leverage was 4.2 times EBITDA against a 4.0-times ceiling. The bull case reaches €5.6 billion, €6.1 billion and €6.6 billion if UKPN integrates well, projects commission on time and leverage eases. ENGIE added 6.2 gigawatts of renewable and battery capacity in 2025, but project returns remain approval estimates. The scenarios exclude the €598 million mark-to-market gain and the reserve reversal.
How much cash does ENGIE really make?
The broader calculation then deducts €7.27 billion of capital spending. It also deducts €458 million of lease payments and €1.512 billion of interest paid, producing free cash flow of negative €10.713 billion. After €112 million of stock compensation, real free cash flow was negative €10.825 billion.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | -10,713 | 1,566 | 4,313 | 786 | -442 |
| − Stock pay | 112 | 97 | 45 | 92 | 48 |
| = Real free cash flow | -10,825 | 1,469 | 4,268 | 694 | -490 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 2,500 | 7,500 | 7,100 | 3,700 | 2,600 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | -14.9% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 0.8% | -0.8% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -15.0% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 0.7% | -0.8% |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is much higher because it subtracts only maintenance spending and nuclear provision funding, while our count subtracts all spending on equipment and buildings.
What does an investor pay for ENGIE today?
At €23.20 on 26 October 2026, ENGIE’s equity value is €58.1 billion, while its enterprise value is €109.7 billion. Equity value belongs to shareholders; enterprise value approximates the cost of buying the operating business while taking on its financing claims. Like buying a house with a mortgage, the buyer receives the asset but inherits obligations that must be paid before the owner receives what remains.
| Today (Oct 26, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 23.20 |
| Market value (calculated) | 58,132.8664 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 109,690.8664 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.9x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -18.6% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yield means the company used more cash than it generated recently, even though it still paid a dividend.