Cisco stock forecast
Cisco's weighted forecast moves from $117.88 today to $105.81 by October 2029, a 6% loss including dividends. Cisco's AI opportunity matters only if orders become profitable shipments, cash and durable software growth.
Where could Cisco's shares be by October 2029?
Cisco’s weighted forecast points to a lower share price by October 2029, because the 6% loss including dividends hinges on AI orders becoming profitable revenue and cash. The weighted price moves from $117.88 today to $105.81 by October 2029.
The bear case reaches $67.43 with 30% probability. The base case carries 50% probability. The bull case reaches $159.44 with 20% probability. The base case assumes earnings growth alongside a P/E decline from 25x to 23x by October 2029.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 78.33 (-32 %) | 71.28 (-37 %) | 67.43 (-39 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 101.13 (-13 %) | 104.48 (-8 %) | 107.38 (-4 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 122.61 (+5 %) | 142.85 (+24 %) | 159.44 (+40 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 98.59 (-15 %) | 102.19 (-10 %) | 105.81 (-6 %) |
What has to go right for Cisco's stock forecast?
In October 2026, Supermicro systems become orderable through Cisco’s partners. Completed installations and shorter delivery waits would test supply relief. On November 12, Cisco reports Q1 FY2027, with an adjusted gross-margin target of 65.0–66.0%. Through FY2027 and FY2028, broader AI demand, campus refreshes, software renewals and Splunk cross-selling support the bull case; delayed installations, rising inventory and weaker cash conversion support the bear case.
Cisco’s AI opportunity matters only if orders become profitable shipments, cash and durable software growth.
How much cash does Cisco really make?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending from operating cash flow. Cisco generated $12,767 million after spending $1,410 million on capital projects. Capital spending rose while operating cash flow stayed flat, so less cash remained after investment. The measure also has limits: research and development is expensed, while outside manufacturing costs run through operating cash flow.
| Year to Jul 2026 | Year to Jul 2025 | Year to Jul 2024 | Year to Jul 2023 | Year to Jul 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 14,177 | 14,193 | 10,880 | 19,886 | 13,226 |
| Capital spending | 1,410 | 905 | 670 | 849 | 477 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 12,767 | 13,288 | 10,210 | 19,037 | 12,749 |
| Stock-based pay | 3,830 | 3,641 | 3,074 | 2,353 | 1,886 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 8,937 | 9,647 | 7,136 | 16,684 | 10,863 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 2.24 | 2.41 | 1.76 | 4.06 | 2.59 |
What does an investor pay for Cisco today?
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 117.882 |
| Market value (calculated) | 464,760.03 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 478,375.03 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 35.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.7% |