Arista stock forecast
Arista’s weighted forecast points to $326.86 by October 2029. Arista’s upside rests on turning AI trials into accepted, cash-generating production without sacrificing margins.
Where could Arista’s shares be by October 2029?
Arista’s weighted forecast points to $326.86 by October 2029, contingent on profitable growth as AI trials become production while customer, supply and valuation risks remain manageable. On August 4, 2026, management guided to $12,600.0 million of 2026 revenue and 40.0% growth. At least $3,500.0 million should come from AI fabrics and $1,250.0 million from campus networking. Non-GAAP gross margin is guided to 62.0%–64.0%. Operating margin is guided to 48.0%–49.0%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 172.16 (-20 %) | 161.42 (-25 %) | 181.42 (-16 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 259.97 (+21 %) | 285.11 (+33 %) | 329.94 (+53 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 324.48 (+51 %) | 411.22 (+91 %) | 500.19 (+133 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 250.92 (+17 %) | 279.41 (+30 %) | 326.86 (+52 %) |
What has to go right for Arista, and what could go wrong?
The base case uses management’s $12,600M 2026 revenue guide, supported by Q2 revenue growth of 37.7%. Revenue then grows 20%, 16% and 14% across the forecast horizons. A normalized net margin of 37.5% stays below 2025’s 39.0% and near H1 2026’s 38.9%, allowing for mix and component costs.
The bear case lowers earnings to $4,868.6M in the first horizon and $5,596.5M in the last. It assumes revenue growth slows to 12% and then 8%, while margins settle near 34.0%. Two customers supplied 42% of 2025 revenue, and purchase commitments reached $9.7B, so delayed projects could weaken both absorption and margins.
The bull case reaches $6,289.9M initially and $9,676.8M by October 2029. It assumes Ethernet AI designs convert into production orders, new platforms ramp successfully and margins rise toward 40.0%. The October rack-scale announcement supports the possibility, but does not yet prove recurring revenue.
How much cash does Arista really make?
Sales growth remains strong but has slowed from its earlier peak, while operating margin keeps improving. The company’s own real free cash flow fell sharply in 2022, then recovered as net cash rose; diluted EPS climbed from $0.66 in 2021 to $2.75 in 2025. The valuation is 67.8x trailing P/E against 40.9x forward P/E. Real free cash flow yield is 1.4%, and dividend yield is 0.0%.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,371.9 | 3,708.2 | 2,034.0 | 492.813 | 1,015.856 |
| − Capital spending | 119.5 | 32.0 | 34.4 | 44.644 | 64.736 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,252.4 | 3,676.2 | 1,999.6 | 448.169 | 951.12 |
| − Stock pay | 439.2 | 355.4 | 296.8 | 230.934 | 186.875 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,813.2 | 3,320.8 | 1,702.8 | 217.235 | 764.245 |