Cencora dividend: payout, coverage and yield
Cencora pays a dividend per share that has risen every year in the supplied history. Its free cash flow has covered the dividend comfortably, while buybacks can compete with acquisition-debt repayment for the same cash.
How much does Cencora pay per share?
The base dividend rises from $2.64 per share to $2.90 and then $3.19. The bear case holds the current $2.40 annual pace before reaching $2.52, while the bull case reaches $2.64, $2.98 and $3.34. The base dividend path receives 65% probability because the dividend has risen every year in the supplied history and free cash flow has covered it comfortably. Debt, legal payments and capex justify a 15% freeze case; stronger specialty cash generation supports a 20% bull case.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 7.96 | 7.53 | 8.53 | 8.04 | 7.39 |
| Real free cash flow per share | 15.67 | 14.23 | 16.27 | 10.01 | 10.21 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.24 | 2.08 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.76 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 2.23 | 7.45 | 5.77 | 2.29 | 0.39 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share differs from our count because it leaves out certain legal-settlement cash payments, while ours uses the cash actually reported.
Is Cencora's dividend covered by its cash?
Dividends have been the steadier shareholder commitment, while buybacks vary more sharply. Cencora authorized a $2.0 billion repurchase program in May 2026 and repurchased $1 billion of shares in the June 2026 quarter. Those purchases can lift earnings per share, but the same cash cannot also repay acquisition debt. The central question therefore shifts from whether Cencora can generate cash to whether it is directing enough of it toward the investments that matter most.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 3,207,139 | 2,997,512 | 3,452,975 | 2,206,770 | 2,228,369 |
| − Dividends paid | 437,081 | 416,168 | 398,752 | 391,687 | 366,648 |
| − Share buybacks | 435,471 | 1,491,367 | 1,180,728 | 483,704 | 82,150 |
| Paid to shareholders | 872,552 | 1,907,535 | 1,579,480 | 875,391 | 448,798 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 27.2% | 63.6% | 45.7% | 39.7% | 20.1% |
What this means. The last percentage uses free cash flow after stock-based pay, so it can differ from the regular percentage even though no stock-pay row is shown.
What could change Cencora's dividend?
For the year to September 2026, management guides to revenue growth of 4–6% and adjusted operating-income growth of 13–14%. It guides to adjusted diluted EPS of $17.75–$17.95 and adjusted free cash flow of $3.0 billion. Capital expenditures are guided to $900 million.
The November earnings call should bring FY2027 guidance. The case turns on operating income growing faster than revenue, plus the effect of acquisition financing and share count on EPS. A mid-fiscal-year close of the pending MWI Animal Health–Covetrus merger would create a $150 million operating-income headwind and an estimated negative EPS effect of about $0.35; timing remains under regulatory review. Cencora estimated $396.2 million of opioid payments before June 30, 2027.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 3,800 (2,850 / 4,100) | 4,100 (3,000 / 4,600) | 4,400 (3,100 / 5,100) |
| Shares (millions) | 189 (190 / 187) | 187 (188 / 184) | 185 (187 / 182) |
| Dividends per share | 2.64 (2.40 / 2.64) | 2.90 (2.40 / 2.98) | 3.19 (2.52 / 3.34) |
| Price to earnings | 18.00 (15.00 / 22.00) | 18.00 (14.00 / 23.00) | 17.00 (13.00 / 24.00) |
What is Cencora's dividend yield today?
At $340.92, Cencora trades at 25.3x trailing and 17.3x next-twelve-month earnings. Free cash flow yield is 4.9%, real free cash flow yield is 4.7%, and dividend yield is 0.7%. Revenue grew 9.3% in FY2025, but operating margin was 0.8%. Diluted EPS rose from $7.39 in FY2021 to $7.96 in FY2025, after peaking at $8.53 in FY2023.