McKesson stock forecast
McKesson's weighted forecast is $1,094.46 in October 2029, a +13% return with dividends included. It hinges on earnings growth, cash generation and capital allocation supporting the valuation.
Where could McKesson's shares be by October 2029?
For the year to March 2027, management guides to adjusted EPS of $44.20–$45.00, adjusted operating-profit growth of 9%–13%, and $4,500–$4,900 million of free cash flow. It also plans $5,000 million of share repurchases. The weighted value is $858.14 in October 2027, a −12% return with dividends included, and $1,094.46 in October 2029, a +13% return with dividends included. The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case, 52% to the base case and 18% to the bull case.
The October 2029 outcomes range from the bear case at $556.80 to the bull case at $1,756.90, against today's $976.57. The base case is the most likely path, but the downside remains material because McKesson operates on thin distribution margins and must keep funding acquisitions, settlements and buybacks.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 636.06 (-34 %) | 593.25 (-38 %) | 556.80 (-42 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 903.41 (-7 %) | 1034.42 (+7 %) | 1175.34 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 1097.50 (+13 %) | 1397.67 (+44 %) | 1756.90 (+81 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 858.14 (-12 %) | 967.45 (-0 %) | 1094.46 (+13 %) |
What has to go right for McKesson, and what could go wrong?
The bear case gives $4.868 billion initially and $4.827 billion at the final date because customer bargaining, acquisition costs and separation friction erode margins. The bull case rises from $5.702 billion to $7.183 billion because specialty acquisitions, RxTS and efficiency investments reinforce one another. Existing segment profit in North American Pharmaceutical, Oncology & Multispecialty and RxTS supports the direction, but not the full bull outcome.
The base case assumes McKesson broadly delivers its guidance. Specialty and access services grow, the distribution network remains stable, buybacks continue at a disciplined pace and the multiple stays near 20x. The price rises from $903.41 to $1,175.34. Its 52% probability is highest because FY2026 exceeded guidance and FY2027 guidance supports continued growth, but cash demands limit confidence in a faster outcome.
How much cash does McKesson really make?
EBITDA helps compare businesses with different financing and acquisition histories, but it ignores working capital, interest, taxes and legal payments. Free cash flow is closer to the shareholder’s question: about $5.4 billion in FY2026 produced a rough 4.7% historical yield. Opioid payments continue through 2038, so accounting profit and usable cash must remain separate.
| Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|
| − Capital spending | 735 |
What this means. The 735 million dollars covers long-term equipment, buildings, and software for the retained businesses and headquarters, but leaves out the Other category.
What does an investor pay for McKesson today?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 976.57 |
| Market value (calculated) | 113,858.65 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 118,423.65 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 19.3x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 0.3x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.4% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns.