Carrier earnings date and guidance
Carrier's next results are due on October 29, 2026. Watch whether commercial equipment shipped as planned.
What has Carrier guided for 2026?
On July 28, Carrier raised its sales target for the year ending December 2026 to approximately $23 billion and its adjusted earnings-per-share target to approximately $2.90. Adjusted earnings per share means profit per share after removing selected items that management considers separate from underlying operations. The increase followed a better first half and a return to organic sales growth, which excludes currency movements and acquisitions or disposals.
Commercial cooling is the harder test. Carrier expects second-half adjusted operating profit and EPS to grow approximately 50% from a year earlier. It also expects $1.5 billion of second-half data-center sales, supporting approximately $2 billion for the full year. A backlog is a queue of orders, not revenue or cash: Carrier must still obtain parts, build the equipment, test it and deliver it. Management calls the second half fully booked, so execution at the factories now matters as much as demand.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Year to Dec 2026 | 23,000 | 23,000 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Adjusted Operating Profit | Year to Dec 2026 | 3,500 | 3,500 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Free Cash Flow | Year to Dec 2026 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | Year to Dec 2026 | 2.90 | 2.90 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Organic | Year to Dec 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | ||
| data center sales — second half | 6 months to Dec 2026 | 1,500 | 1,500 | Jul 28, 2026 |
What this means. A zero in the segment margin rows means the company expects no year-over-year change, not zero profit.
Did Carrier keep its past promises?
The 2025 annual bonus shows firmer discipline. Carrier missed its sales, adjusted operating-profit and free-cash-flow targets. The company performance factor fell to 39%, and the committee added no individual uplift. Gitlin’s bonus was US$1,023,750 and Goris’s was US$351,000. A weak year therefore reduced their bonuses without eliminating their longer-term awards.
What has Carrier's last eight quarters shown about sales and profit?
Organic sales growth removes specified effects such as acquisitions, divestitures and currency. It still combines price, the number of machines sold and the mix of products. Organic growth was 4% in Q3 2024, then became a 9% decline in Q4 2025. It returned to 3% growth in Q2 2026, but that recovery does not by itself prove that Carrier sold more units.
Carrier exceeded EPS estimates in six of the eight quarters from the third quarter of 2024 through the second quarter of 2026. It missed in two. The latest miss came in the fourth quarter of 2025, while both first two quarters of 2026 beat expectations. That record is encouraging but too short to make another beat automatic.