Trane stock forecast
Trane’s weighted forecast is $503.29 in October 2027 and reaches $556.94 in October 2029. It hinges on whether Trane converts the $12.1B backlog profitably.
Where could Trane’s shares be by 2029?
The forecast’s central outcome is a moderate gain, but the possible outcomes spread widely. The weighted price is $503.29 in October 2027 and $529.16 in October 2028. It reaches $556.94 in October 2029, representing returns with dividends of 12% and 19% at the first two dates, then 26%.
By October 2029, the bear case gives $301.00 while the bull case reaches $911.46, against today’s $451.29. The bear probability is 25%. The base probability is 55%. The bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 351.57 (-21%) | 325.70 (-26%) | 301.00 (-31%) |
| Base | 55% | 520.43 (+16%) | 534.66 (+20%) | 544.37 (+24%) |
| Bull | 20% | 645.83 (+44%) | 768.39 (+72%) | 911.46 (+105%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 503.29 (+12%) | 529.16 (+19%) | 556.94 (+26%) |
What this means. The weighted row is an average of the three cases based on their probabilities, not a prediction that the shares will definitely reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for Trane?
The bear case gives $3,219M in the first year and $3,250M in the second. It reaches $3,302M in 2029 as revenue rises only from $24,200M to $25,800M while margins fall from 13.3% to 12.8%. The bull case reaches $5,389M by 2029, using revenue of $31,700M and a 17.0% margin. The difference reflects whether the $12.1B backlog converts profitably. Q2 bookings rose 37% organically, but gross margin fell to 35.6% from 37.6%, and price versus inflation was unfavorable. Guidance of $15.20–$15.30 adjusted EPS supports growth, but Stellar is expected to add $500M of revenue with no 2026 EPS contribution.
How much cash does Trane really make?
Trane’s own free-cash-flow count reached $2,887.3 million because it added back selected restructuring, legal and acquisition payments and included an asset sale. A stricter analytical measure subtracts stock compensation, which represented $86.6 million in 2025. These are different definitions, not different piles of cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,220.4 | 3,177.7 | 2,426.8 | 1,698.7 | 1,594.4 |
| − Capital spending | 383.0 | 370.6 | 300.7 | 291.8 | 223.0 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,837.4 | 2,807.1 | 2,126.1 | 1,406.9 | 1,371.4 |
| − Stock pay | 86.6 | 82.9 | 64.3 | 56.3 | 66.5 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,750.8 | 2,724.2 | 2,061.8 | 1,350.6 | 1,304.9 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 13.3% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it leaves out some costs and sometimes subtracts cash items that we do not.
What does an investor pay for Trane today?
The trailing P/E compares the share price with recent earnings; the forward P/E uses estimated future earnings. Trane’s trailing P/E is 33.6×, while its forward P/E is 25.5×. Those multiples imply past earnings of about $13.43 per share and expected earnings of about $17.70. The lower multiple therefore assumes profits will rise. Adjusted earnings also exclude selected acquisition, restructuring and acquired-backlog amortization costs, so investors must check whether growth appears in organic sales and margins.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 451.29 |
| Market value (calculated) | 99,294.3 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 102,592.8 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 33.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.5x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.8% |
What this means. The next-12-month price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, so it is not a proven result.