Carrier stock forecast
Carrier's weighted forecast is $45.37 in October 2027, rising to $60.94 in October 2029. It hinges on commercial and data-center deliveries converting to profit while residential demand and factory utilization recover.
Where could Carrier's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $45.37 in October 2027, a 16% loss from $55.00 including dividends. It rises to $53.11 in October 2028, or roughly flat, and reaches $60.94 in October 2029, a 16% gain. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case, 50% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 26.97 (-49 %) | 26.99 (-47 %) | 27.23 (-45 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 49.37 (-8 %) | 57.60 (+8 %) | 64.98 (+24 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 62.94 (+16 %) | 81.08 (+51 %) | 101.40 (+91 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 45.37 (-16 %) | 53.11 (+0 %) | 60.94 (+16 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Carrier?
The bear case gives $2.64 billion, $2.79 billion and $2.99 billion as commercial conversion falters and residential weakness persists. The bull case gives $3.55 billion, $3.98 billion and $4.42 billion because commercial and data-center deliveries improve utilization and margins. Q2 total orders grew about 40%, while data-center orders grew more than 300%, but orders can be delayed or canceled.
How much cash does Carrier really make?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending from operating cash flow. Carrier published free cash flow of $2,121 million for 2025. Using continuing operating cash flow and $392 million of continuing capital spending produces about $1,697 million, a better view of the ongoing business.
Shares fall in every case, but at different speeds. The base count moves from 799.6 million to 770.9 million, supported by $1.0 billion annual buybacks and partly offset by compensation issuance. The bear case ends at 802.3 million because buybacks fall to $0.3 billion by the third year. The bull case reaches 764.3 million on $1.5 billion annual buybacks. Carrier had 824.325 million shares outstanding in July and repurchased 12.0 million in the first half, supporting continued reductions.
What does an investor pay for Carrier today?
The price-to-earnings ratio shows what investors pay for each dollar of annual profit. The next-twelve-month P/E implies about $3.29 of earnings per share. That is above Carrier’s latest 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.90, so the apparently moderate valuation already depends on improvement beyond the current outlook.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 55.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 45,337.88 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 55,945.88 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.7x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit for the next year, not a promise from the company.