Berkshire Hathaway stock forecast
The weighted value reaches $595.71 in October 2029, including dividends, for a 17% return from today’s $511.05. It hinges on insurance, railroad, utility and manufacturing performance.
Where could Berkshire Hathaway’s shares be by October 2029?
The bear, base and bull cases carry probabilities of 25%, 55% and 20%; the bear and bull values are $419.23 and $774.86. Third-quarter 2026 results, expected November 2, will test insurance, railroad, utility and manufacturing performance. On November 3, 2026, the Oregon Supreme Court will hear oral argument in PacifiCorp’s class-action case, in which people with similar claims sue together.
The weighted price reaches $527.08 in October 2027, including dividends, for a 3% return from today’s $511.05. It reaches $560.37 in October 2028, a 10% return, and $595.71 in October 2029, a 17% return. Dividends do not contribute because every case assumes no payout.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 431.15 (-16 %) | 424.33 (-17 %) | 419.23 (-18 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 544.87 (+7 %) | 577.09 (+13 %) | 610.79 (+20 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 598.08 (+17 %) | 684.44 (+34 %) | 774.86 (+52 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 527.08 (+3 %) | 560.37 (+10 %) | 595.71 (+17 %) |
What has to go right for Berkshire Hathaway, and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires several pressures to arrive together: catastrophe losses, adverse reserve development, wildfire liabilities, slow utility recovery and fewer attractive investments. The multiple contracts as investors question growth and recent insurance profitability. The price falls from $431.15 in October 2027 to $419.23 in October 2029. Its 25% probability reflects meaningful exposure to these risks, while Berkshire’s diversification makes a deeper collapse less likely.
The bull case requires sustained underwriting discipline, better BNSF execution, timely BHE recovery and favorable investment marks. Management then uses surplus cash for undervalued repurchases or investments, raising per-share value. The price rises from $598.08 to $774.86. The probability is 20% because several businesses must execute well at once.
How much cash does Berkshire Hathaway really make?
Cash provides a necessary second test. Berkshire generated about US$46.0 billion of operating cash flow in 2025. It spent US$20.9 billion on capital assets, leaving roughly US$25.1 billion before other investing and financing needs. That remainder is not automatically distributable: railroads and utilities must replace assets, while insurance cash also reflects policyholder funding and claims.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments (calculated) | 373,311 | 334,201 | 167,641 | 128,585 | 146,719 |
| Total assets | 1,222,176 | 1,153,881 | 1,069,978 | 948,465 | 958,784 |
| Total debt (calculated) | 129,081 | 124,762 | 128,271 | 122,744 | 114,262 |
What does an investor pay today for Berkshire Hathaway?
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 511.05 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 1,094,009.92777905 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.5x |
| P/E on operating earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.0x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.0% |