BP earnings: guidance and next results
BP’s next results are expected on October 30, 2026. BP should be watched for production and refinery throughput against the guided ranges.
What has BP guided for 2026?
Management guides to 2,180–2,270 thousand boe/d of 2026 production and $13.5–14 billion of capital expenditure. It expects $8–9 billion of 2026 divestment and other proceeds, including about $6 billion from Castrol. By end-2027, it targets net debt of $14–18 billion and structural cost reductions of $5.5–6.5 billion. It targets at least 20% annual compound growth in adjusted free cash flow over 2024–2027 and 16% return on average capital in 2027.
| period guided | low | high | date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| reported upstream production (mboe/d) | 2026 | 2,180 | 2,270 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| capital expenditure (US$ millions) | 2026 | 13,500 | 14,000 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| divestment and other proceeds (US$ millions) | 2026 | 8,000 | 9,000 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Net debt (US$ millions) | End 2027 | 14,000 | 18,000 | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Structural cost reduction (US$ millions) | End 2027 | 5,500 | 6,500 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Adjusted free cash flow compound annual growth (%) | 2024–2027 | 20.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
What are BP’s recent revenue and profit results?
June 2026 brought a sharp earnings and cash improvement, driven by prices and downstream margins rather than higher production. Revenue reached $69,105 million, against $46,627 million a year earlier.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 69,105 | 52,255 | 47,383 | 48,420 | 46,627 | 46,905 | 45,752 | 47,254 |
| Operating income | 8,941 | 8,486 | -261 | 4,448 | 4,056 | 4,399 | 743 | 2,457 |
| Net income | 3,911 | 3,842 | -3,422 | 1,161 | 1,629 | 687 | -1,959 | 206 |
| EPS, diluted | 24.54 | 24.53 | -22.21 | 7.38 | 10.27 | 4.27 | -12.33 | 1.23 |
What should BP watch in the next results?
The expected third-quarter results date is October 30, 2026, but that date remains an estimate. Investors should compare production and refinery throughput with management’s guided ranges. Throughput is the amount of crude processed, so it connects refinery availability with potential fuel sales.
Customers is expected to weaken. The important question is whether that decline matches the forecast pressure on Castrol or reflects additional operating problems. Production and refinery reliability will show whether BP can keep equipment working through maintenance and disruption. Strong profit alongside weak physical delivery would make future forecasts more dependent on favourable prices.