Bristol Myers Squibb dividend
Bristol Myers Squibb’s forecast annual dividend rises from $2.55 to $2.63 in the base case. Cash generation supports the dividend, but acquisitions, debt and replacement research compete for that cash.
How much does Bristol Myers Squibb pay in dividends?
Dividends rise modestly in the base case, from $2.55 to $2.63. The bear freezes the declared quarterly rate, producing $2.52 annually, while the bull reaches $2.66. The history of annual increases and cash coverage supports continuity, but approaching patent losses argue against rapid growth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow per share | 6.30 | 6.88 | 6.09 | 5.57 | 6.79 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.47 | 2.40 | 2.28 | 2.16 | 1.96 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.48 | 3.73 | 2.80 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 3.81 | 4.47 | 1.32 | 2.02 |
What this means. In 2022, the company paid shareholders more cash than its business generated, so it had to use cash from elsewhere.
Does Bristol Myers Squibb’s dividend have cash coverage?
Free cash flow is operating cash after necessary capital spending. In 2025, BMS generated $14.2 billion from operations and spent $1.3 billion on capital projects. It also paid $3.9 billion for acquisitions, which may be essential to replace ageing medicines but can be omitted from conventional free-cash-flow calculations. The dividend distributes cash; it does not create more, so adding its yield to the cash-flow yield would count the same money twice.
The view would move toward the bear case if 2027 launches disappoint, Eliquis pressure accelerates before 2028, or Opdivo exposure becomes more severe. It would also weaken if cash generation cannot support debt reduction and dividends.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 12,845 | 13,942 | 12,651 | 11,948 | 15,234 |
| − Dividends paid | 5,045 | 4,863 | 4,744 | 4,634 | 4,396 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 5,155 | 8,001 | 6,287 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 7,778 | 9,062 | 2,736 | 4,531 | |
| Paid to shareholders | 5,045 | 4,863 | 9,899 | 12,635 | 10,683 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 39.3% | 34.9% | 78.2% | 105.7% | 70.1% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is lower than our figure because it also subtracts long-term marketable debt securities, not just cash and short-term investments.
What could change Bristol Myers Squibb’s dividend?
Eliquis and Opdivo both have estimated minimum U.S. exclusivity through 2028, while BMS expects Eliquis revenue to step down by $1.5–2 billion in 2027. The price therefore assumes a successful bridge: not every new medicine must win, but enough replacement profit must arrive before today’s cash flow becomes temporary.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 13,750 (12,375 / 14,392) | 13,000 (10,450 / 15,370) | 11,520 (8,455 / 15,950) |
| Shares (millions) | 2,054 (2,056 / 2,028) | 2,057 (2,069 / 2,008) | 2,054 (2,082 / 1,981) |
| Dividends per share | 2.55 (2.52 / 2.56) | 2.59 (2.52 / 2.61) | 2.63 (2.52 / 2.66) |
| Price to earnings | 9.00 (7.00 / 11.00) | 8.00 (6.00 / 12.00) | 7.00 (5.00 / 13.00) |
What is Bristol Myers Squibb’s dividend yield today?
BMS shares are priced to offer a high current cash return, but that return is convincing only if the cash lasts.