BlackRock stock forecast
BlackRock's weighted forecast reaches $1,392.58 in October 2029. It hinges on turning scale into cash without letting cost, dilution, or trust erode the return.
Where could BlackRock's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $1,250.37 in October 2027, a 19% total return including dividends. It reaches $1,309.69 in October 2028, a 27% return. By October 2029, the weighted price is $1,392.58, a 37% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 886.11 (-15 %) | 800.49 (-21 %) | 787.99 (-20 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 1286.51 (+22 %) | 1335.18 (+29 %) | 1376.56 (+36 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1706.40 (+61 %) | 2009.77 (+92 %) | 2339.51 (+125 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1250.37 (+19 %) | 1309.69 (+27 %) | 1392.58 (+37 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case its stated chance, so it is not another separate forecast.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for BlackRock?
The bear case gives earnings of $7,975 million in 2027 and $8,100 million in 2028, reaching $8,505 million in 2029. It reflects weaker markets, lower-fee products and persistent acquisition costs. The bull case reaches $10,560 million, $11,880 million and $13,260 million as higher-fee inflows, cross-selling and private-market growth outpace costs. Technology ACV grew 16% organically in 2025, supporting that upside but not proving it.
The bull case requires broad inflows, successful Aladdin, eFront and Preqin cross-selling, and private-market commitments converting into fee-paying assets. If recurring revenue grows faster than costs, buybacks and multiple expansion reinforce the result. The path reaches $1,706.40 first and $2,339.51 last. Its probability is 20% because several unproven conditions must hold together.
How much cash does BlackRock really make?
Stock compensation was $1,307 million. Deducting it from free cash flow produces “real free cash flow” of $2,245 million. The deduction recognises the economic cost to shareholders, even though the company did not make another cash payment in the period.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,927 | 4,956 | 4,165 | 4,956 | 4,944 |
| − Capital spending | 375 | 255 | 344 | 533 | 341 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,552 | 4,701 | 3,821 | 4,423 | 4,603 |
| − Stock pay | 1,307 | 753 | 630 | 708 | 734 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,245 | 3,948 | 3,191 | 3,715 | 3,869 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 9.3% | 19.3% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
What does an investor pay for BlackRock today?
The trailing P/E of 24.4x prices the last twelve months’ earnings. The forward P/E of 19.2x prices estimated earnings for the next twelve months. They imply EPS of approximately US$44.01 and US$55.93, respectively—roughly 27% growth if the definitions match. GAAP EPS was US$10.57 in the latest quarter, while adjusted EPS was US$15.93. Adjusted earnings remove selected charges, while performance fees can make either measure unusually strong.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1,073.79 |
| Market value (calculated) | 174,168.74 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 24.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 19.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.3% |