Goldman Sachs stock forecast
Goldman Sachs's weighted forecast reaches $889.44 in October 2029, with an 8% total return. It hinges on Goldman Sachs converting its deal pipeline into durable fees.
Where could Goldman Sachs's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to limited weighted price appreciation, with meaningful downside and upside around it. The weighted price is $858.40 in October 2027, equivalent to a negative 1% total return including dividends. It rises to $870.35 in October 2028, or 3%, and $889.44 in October 2029, or 8%. The final-date range runs from $542.69 in the bear case to $1,320.78 in the bull case, against today’s $891.91. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 665.01 (-23 %) | 580.22 (-30 %) | 542.69 (-32 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 893.43 (+3 %) | 892.14 (+5 %) | 890.21 (+8 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1003.80 (+15 %) | 1173.08 (+37 %) | 1320.78 (+57 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 858.40 (-1 %) | 870.35 (+3 %) | 889.44 (+8 %) |
What has to go right for Goldman Sachs, and what could go wrong?
The base case assumes book value grows, but more slowly than the strongest recent earnings rate. Starting common equity is $110,151 million. The base case reaches $111,951 million in October 2027 and $113,951 million in October 2028. It reaches $116,151 million in October 2029. The path reflects normalized earnings, continuing buybacks and dividends, with no extra stress-loss overlay. First-nine-month earnings applicable to common shareholders were $16,924 million, and annualized nine-month ROE was 20.7%, but those results are stronger than a through-cycle assumption. The bear case instead erodes equity to $106,151 million by 2029 because weaker earnings, additional credit losses and slower capital returns outweigh retained profits. The bull case reaches $123,351 million because deal conversion, financing revenue and AWM fees sustain higher earnings and larger buybacks.
The bull case requires deal completions to replenish the pipeline, strong client activity to sustain Global Markets and successful NEOS and LCN integration to expand fee-paying AWM assets. AWM fees were up 19% year over year in the first nine months of 2026, supporting the possibility of stronger retained earnings. The shares reach $1,003.80 in 2027 and $1,320.78 in 2029. The probability is 20% because several initiatives must succeed while high returns persist through a cycle.
How much cash does Goldman Sachs really make?
In 2025, Goldman earned $17,176 million but used $45,154 million of operating cash. Trading assets, loans and customer balances can produce that result because the cash-flow statement captures the expansion of the financial balance sheet, not just the conversion of profit into spare cash.
The dividend provides cash income, while buybacks reduce the number of shares dividing future profits. Goldman spent $3 billion on buybacks in the third quarter. The useful question is whether those purchases create value at the price paid and leave enough regulatory capital for the business.
What does an investor pay today for Goldman Sachs?
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 891.91 |
| Market value (calculated) | 259,698.69 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.5x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ estimate of next year’s profit, so it is not based on profit the company has already earned.