BAM stock forecast
BAM's weighted forecast is C$65.47 in October 2027, C$73.83 in October 2028, and C$81.26 in October 2029, with 25% probability on the bear case, 55% on the base case and 20% on the bull case. It hinges on execution: turning commitments into fees and marks into cash.
Where could BAM's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is C$65.47 in October 2027 and C$81.26 in October 2029. The forecast assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
The probability-weighted price is C$65.47 in October 2027, C$73.83 in October 2028, and C$81.26 in October 2029. Including dividends, those figures represent returns of 5%, 23%, and 40% from today's C$65.52.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 46.92 (-24 %) | 43.76 (-24 %) | 40.28 (-25 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 67.54 (+8 %) | 75.96 (+27 %) | 81.24 (+41 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 82.97 (+32 %) | 105.57 (+72 %) | 132.51 (+120 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 65.47 (+5 %) | 73.83 (+23 %) | 81.26 (+40 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for BAM?
The bear case uses 6% annual revenue growth because deployment may slow. Its margins move from 48% to 46% as financing and operating costs absorb more revenue. The bull case uses 16% growth for two years, then 15%, with margins rising from 53% to 55%. The upside requires strong fundraising, Oaktree integration, and new strategies to become fee-paying. Q2 fundraising reached a record $77 billion, fee-bearing capital reached $672 billion, and FRE rose 20% year over year. BAM also identified $68 billion of uncalled commitments that could produce about $680 million of annual fees once deployed.
How much cash does BAM really make?
BAM needs little physical capital spending, but its cash receipts do not fully match its cash-oriented earnings measure. Operating cash of US$2,101 million less US$9 million of capital spending produced US$2,092 million of free cash flow. Deducting US$123 million of stock compensation leaves US$1,969 million of economic free cash flow.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 2,092 | 1,604 | 1,422 | -387 | 1,408 |
| − Stock pay | 123 | 103 | 33 | -48 | 199 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,969 | 1,501 | 1,389 | -339 | 1,209 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 2,695 | 2,363 | 2,244 | 2,096 | 1,892 |
What does an investor pay for BAM today?
P/E compares the share price with reported earnings, but BAM’s earnings include more than ordinary fees. Carried interest is BAM’s share of fund profits after investors receive specified returns. Accounting can record an estimated amount before the investments are sold. In Q2 2026, BAM recorded US$387 million of unrealized carry attributable to it, while realized carry was zero. That profit can shrink when investment marks fall.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 65.52 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.3x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 9.8x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.4% |