Apollo earnings
Apollo's next results are expected on November 3, 2026. The key thing to watch is whether Apollo's fee-related earnings and spread-related earnings targets remain credible.
What has Apollo guided for 2026?
Apollo’s weighted forecast price reaches $144.37 in October 2029 if fee growth holds and Athene’s spread earnings remain broadly steady. For 2026, management targets at least 20% fee-related earnings (FRE) growth and 10% spread-related earnings (SRE) growth. It also targets 100 basis points of FRE margin expansion. It targets a 120–125 basis-point net spread, based on an 11% alternative-investment return assumption.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRE growth | Year to Dec 2026 | 20.0% | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| SRE growth | Year to Dec 2026 | 10.0% | 10.0% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| FRE margin expansion (basis points) | Year to Dec 2026 | 100 | 100 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Athene inflows | Year to Dec 2026 | 85,000 | 85,000 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Net spread (basis points) | Year to Dec 2026 | 120 | 125 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Alternative investment return assumption | Year to Dec 2026 | 11.0% | 11.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
What this means. A basis point is a small percentage unit: 100 basis points equals 1 percentage point, so this does not mean a 100 percent profit margin.
What has Apollo's revenue and profit trend been?
The second-quarter improvement appears in revenue, net income, diluted EPS and operating cash flow. The comparison is encouraging, but those lines include investment and insurance activity, so they do not by themselves prove a lasting improvement in the fee franchise.
The first quarter contained a one-time, noncash tax expense of $1.7 billion after Athene revoked its Bermuda tax election and Apollo recorded a valuation allowance against related deferred-tax assets. That accounting charge drove the first-quarter loss; it was not a current cash-tax payment. Net income for the first half of 2026 therefore remained negative.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,153 | 5,059 | 9,864 | 9,823 | 6,814 | 5,548 | 5,283 | 7,773 |
| Net income | 1,361 | -1,906 | 684 | 1,736 | 630 | 442 | 1,486 | 811 |
| EPS, diluted | 2.15 | -3.27 | 1.07 | 2.78 | 0.99 | 0.68 | 2.39 | 1.29 |
| Cash from operations | 2,881 | 1,620 | 4,669 | 303 | 1,262 | 1,012 | -4 | 1,854 |
What this means. The March 2026 loss is unusually large because it includes a one-time 1.7 billion dollar tax charge, not just the quarter's normal business costs.
What should I watch in Apollo's next results?
Apollo’s November 3, 2026 results are the first test of target credibility. Through 2027–2029, fee-paying asset growth and margins, Athene credit and spread performance, origination quality, deployment and redemptions will decide whether earnings support the forecast multiple. The $4.0 billion authorization is discretionary; actual buybacks and stock awards will affect per-share outcomes. The 2.0% dividend yield and 1.2% buyback yield do not establish earnings quality.
On October 5, Apollo estimated about $375 million of third-quarter alternative net investment income before tax, equivalent to a 10% annualized return. That is useful evidence about investment performance, but it is preliminary. The full release was scheduled for November 3, 2026.