Marriott stock forecast
Marriott's weighted value is $399.44 in October 2029, implying a 6% gain. Marriott's forecast turns on whether Marriott can expand its fee engine without borrowing away the cash that supports shareholder returns.
Where could Marriott's shares go?
The forecast points to modest expected returns, with substantial downside if travel weakens and considerable upside if Marriott converts its pipeline successfully. The probability-weighted price is $363.95 in October 2027, equal to a 5% loss including dividends. It rises to $381.43 in October 2028, a 1% gain, and $399.44 in October 2029, a 6% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 256.13 (-33 %) | 241.01 (-36 %) | 231.53 (-38 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 390.45 (+2 %) | 406.91 (+7 %) | 421.98 (+12 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 482.43 (+26 %) | 568.82 (+49 %) | 652.59 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 363.95 (-5 %) | 381.43 (+1 %) | 399.44 (+6 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average after giving each case its probability, so it can be below the base case because the bear case loses more than the bull case gains.
What has to go right or wrong for Marriott?
The base case requires successful openings to turn roughly 265,000 rooms under construction at year-end 2025 into recurring fees and operating-profit growth. Signed projects still face financing, renovation, and demand hurdles. The downside grows if regional weakness or owner cost pressure slows fees while distributions exceed free cash flow. Marriott’s next scheduled catalyst is its third-quarter report on November 2, 2026, when investors will test guidance against RevPAR, room growth, and card-fee contribution.
The bull case gives $482.43 initially and $652.59 finally, a 72% total return. Its 15% probability reflects the need for stronger demand, healthy owners, fast pipeline conversion, rising card fees and sustained buybacks to occur together. Roughly 265,000 rooms under construction provide opportunity, but signed rooms do not guarantee openings.
How much cash does Marriott really make?
Net income of $2,601 million became operating cash flow of $3,212 million in 2025. After the investment deduction used here, free cash flow was $2,258 million. Deducting $236 million of stock-based pay produces an analytical “real free cash flow” figure, because shares given to employees transfer value even when they preserve cash at first.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,212 | 2,749 | 3,170 | 2,363 | 1,177 |
| − Capital spending | 954 | 776 | 553 | 332 | 183 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,258 | 1,973 | 2,617 | 2,031 | 994 |
| − Stock pay | 236 | 237 | 205 | 192 | 182 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,022 | 1,736 | 2,412 | 1,839 | 812 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.7% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.9% |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but it gives employees part of the company, so we subtract its value to show what is truly left for shareholders.
What does an investor pay for Marriott today?
A trailing P/E of 40.0x means investors pay $40 for each dollar of earnings per share from the past year. The forward P/E of 29.4x uses expected earnings, so it assumes profits will rise. Buybacks can raise earnings per share without raising total profit: if $1 billion of earnings is divided among 100 million shares, each share earns $10; after 10 million shares are bought back, each remaining share earns about $11.11.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 385.71 |
| Market value (calculated) | 100,580.16 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 117,033.16 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 40.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 29.4x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns, making its book value negative.