Trip.com stock forecast
Trip.com’s weighted case reaches HK$422.75 by October 2029, a 36% total return including dividends. Trip.com hinges on hotel commissions, pricing and inventory after the July 2026 order.
Where could Trip.com’s shares be by 2029?
The forecast starts at HK$330.34 by October 2027, a 5% total return including dividends, and reaches HK$422.75 by October 2029, a 36% total return including dividends. It assigns 35% probability to bear, 50% to base and 15% to bull. The outcome turns on hotel commissions, pricing and inventory after the July 2026 order; repeat use, direct traffic and contribution profit in international markets; and liquidity around the US$1.5 billion convertible notes, with cash repayment available to holders on June 15, 2027. Conversion, awards and buybacks shape dilution.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 230.71 (-27 %) | 220.38 (-30 %) | 236.01 (-25 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 335.27 (+7 %) | 384.13 (+24 %) | 434.68 (+40 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 546.37 (+75 %) | 668.68 (+115 %) | 818.75 (+164 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 330.34 (+5 %) | 369.50 (+18 %) | 422.75 (+36 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Trip.com?
The bear case starts at CNY9,825 million and ends at CNY11,520 million. It assumes weaker demand, revenue of CNY65.5 billion initially, and margins of 15% before a limited recovery. The bull case starts at CNY16,800 million and ends at CNY22,620 million, requiring margins to rise from 24% to 26%. Q2 revenue grew 6%, while international-platform revenue rose over 50%; however, sales and marketing expense rose 15%, and the reported operating loss included the anti-monopoly penalty.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 12,420 (9,825 / 16,800) | 13,875 (10,200 / 19,500) | 15,170 (11,520 / 22,620) |
| Shares (millions) | 632 (636 / 630) | 632 (640 / 628) | 632 (656 / 626) |
| Dividends per share | 2.16 (0.00 / 2.88) | 2.16 (0.00 / 3.60) | 2.16 (0.00 / 4.32) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 10.00 (7.00 / 14.00) | 10.50 (6.00 / 15.00) | 11.00 (6.00 / 16.00) |
| Net debt | -56,415 (-56,295 / -58,202) | -61,248 (-59,021 / -65,445) | -67,294 (-62,844 / -74,960) |
How much cash does Trip.com really make?
Operating cash flow measures cash generated by the business. Free cash flow subtracts capital spending, lease payments and interest. The “real” measure also subtracts stock pay, which requires no immediate cash but still dilutes existing owners. Trip.com remained strongly cash-generative in 2025, although real free cash flow was lower than in the preceding years.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 14,379 | 19,625 | 22,004 | 2,641 | 2,475 |
| − Capital spending | 797 | 591 | 606 | 497 | 570 |
| = Free cash flow | 13,582 | 19,034 | 21,398 | 2,144 | 1,905 |
| − Stock pay | 2,270 | 2,042 | 1,834 | 1,188 | 1,681 |
| = Real free cash flow | 11,312 | 16,992 | 19,564 | 956 | 224 |
What this means. These cash figures include money Trip.com lends through its financial-services business, so they are not cash from the travel business alone.
What does an investor pay for Trip.com today?
The shares look inexpensive on reported earnings, but reported earnings are not the same as recurring travel profit. The trailing P/E divides the share price by recent earnings per share, so a one-off gain can make the ratio look artificially low. Trip.com’s 2025 profit included a RMB15.2 billion gain from selling part of its MakeMyTrip investment. The cash was real, but it came from selling an asset, not from earning more hotel commissions or ticket fees. The higher forward P/E therefore points toward more normal future earnings.