Meituan stock forecast
The weighted forecast for Meituan is 106.34 HKD by October 2029, a 41% return including dividends. Meituan’s outcome hinges on operating recovery and cash generation proving durable.
Where could Meituan’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast rises from today’s 75.25 HKD, but the outcome depends heavily on operating recovery. At October 2027, the weighted price is 86.09 HKD, a 14% return including dividends. At October 2028, it reaches 95.69 HKD, a 27% return. At October 2029, it reaches 106.34 HKD, a 41% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 7.08 (-91 %) | 8.08 (-89 %) | 9.21 (-88 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 82.08 (+9 %) | 91.95 (+22 %) | 102.98 (+37 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 195.85 (+160 %) | 215.47 (+186 %) | 237.00 (+215 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 86.09 (+14 %) | 95.69 (+27 %) | 106.34 (+41 %) |
What has to go right for Meituan, and what could go wrong?
The evidence supports recovery but not a smooth return to former profitability. Core Local Commerce earned RMB5.67bn at a 7.9% margin in Q2 2026, while the 2024 margin was 20.9%. The bear case gives RMB2,000m of EBIT: RMB300bn of core revenue at a 7% margin, continued New Initiatives losses and RMB9bn of unallocated costs. The bull case gives RMB58,000m, based on RMB360bn of revenue, a 19% core margin and New Initiatives losses narrowing to RMB2.4bn. The bull requires competition to ease and newer businesses to approach break-even; management’s loss ceiling does not establish that outcome.
| FY2030 | |
|---|---|
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 34,000 (2,000 / 58,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 6,259 (6,423 / 6,050) |
| Exit multiple (enterprise value to operating profit (ebit)) | 14.00 (8.00 / 20.00) |
| Net debt | -154,513 (-43,113 / -212,293) |
How much cash does Meituan really make?
The core earnings turn is stark: operating margin moved from 10.9% in 2024 to -6.9% in 2025. The company’s real free cash flow, computed from cash from operations minus capital spending, fell to -10.3% of revenue in 2025 from 10.4% in 2024.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | -13,815.001 | 57,146.784 | 40,521.85 | 11,411.448 | -4,011.457 |
| − Capital spending | 13,270.708 | 10,999.49 | 6,879.551 | 5,731.304 | 9,010.455 |
| = Free cash flow | -31,701.735 | 42,622.337 | 30,095.152 | 1,898.346 | -15,833.338 |
| − Stock pay | 6,001.867 | 7,582.693 | 8,383.353 | 8,742.962 | 5,193.86 |
| = Real free cash flow | -37,703.602 | 35,039.644 | 21,711.799 | -6,844.616 | -21,027.198 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -10.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | -3.1% | -11.7% |
What this means. Stock pay uses shares instead of cash, but it still gives employees part of the company, so we subtract it from free cash flow.
What does an investor pay today for Meituan?
Cash is the harder test. Meituan’s free-cash-flow yields are negative despite the positive earnings forecast. Inventory purchases, lending growth and working-capital movements can absorb cash, while merchant balances and customer advances may provide temporary funding. Cash awaiting payment to a restaurant also carries an obligation, so operating cash flow must be reconciled with the balance sheet.