BeOne stock forecast
BeOne's weighted forecast is HKD 278.80 by October 2027. BeOne's outcome turns on BRUKINSA’s demand, TEVIMBRA’s uptake, and whether the pipeline converts into approvals and launches.
Where could BeOne's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to a weighted share price of HKD 278.80 by October 2027, HKD 305.92 by October 2028 and HKD 335.61 by October 2029. Including dividends, which are forecast at zero, those prices imply returns of 24%, 36% and 50% from today’s HKD 224.40.
The range is much wider than the weighted path: the October 2029 bear outcome is HKD 85.63, while the bull outcome is HKD 730.63. The probabilities are 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 68.25 (-70 %) | 76.46 (-66 %) | 85.63 (-62 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 270.70 (+21 %) | 297.83 (+33 %) | 327.59 (+46 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 614.88 (+174 %) | 670.34 (+199 %) | 730.63 (+226 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 278.80 (+24 %) | 305.92 (+36 %) | 335.61 (+50 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for BeOne?
The bear case gives EBIT of $1.040 billion. Revenue reaches $9.0 billion and an 86% gross margin produces $7.74 billion of gross profit. Costs of $6.70 billion leave little operating leverage. This reflects competition, reimbursement pressure and delayed pipeline contribution. The bull case gives EBIT of $5.450 billion. Revenue reaches $15.5 billion, while a 90% margin produces $13.95 billion of gross profit. Costs of $8.50 billion leave unusually strong leverage, requiring successful approvals and sustained patient gains.
How much cash does BeOne really make?
Free cash flow also has competing definitions. The company’s own count excludes intangible-asset purchases, while a broader analytical measure includes them. Subtracting stock pay produces a still lower “real free cash flow” measure because dilution is an economic cost to owners, even when it is not a cash payment. Research spending already passes through operating cash flow, and lower capital spending may not persist.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,127.58 | -140.631 | -1,157.453 | -1,496.619 | -1,298.723 |
| − Capital spending | 205.839 | 497.337 | 581.261 | 325.434 | 306.351 |
| = Free cash flow | 921.741 | -637.968 | -1,738.714 | -1,822.053 | -1,605.074 |
| − Stock pay | 510.857 | 441.618 | 367.618 | 303.162 | 240.712 |
| = Real free cash flow | 410.884 | -1,079.586 | -2,106.332 | -2,125.215 | -1,845.786 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.7% | -28.3% | -85.7% | -150.1% | -156.9% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out money spent on intangible assets, while our count includes it.
What does an investor pay for BeOne today?
That cash is useful, but it may fund trials, factories or licensing deals. The business itself is valued at 6.3 times trailing revenue. Its trailing P/E, the price paid for each dollar of annual profit, is 66.5x, while its next-twelve-month P/E is 37.2x. The lower forward multiple assumes roughly 79% earnings growth.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 224.40 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 66.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 37.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.0% |
What this means. The business value is lower than the stock-market value because the company has more cash than debt.