Chalco dividend
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Chalco paid CNY0.270 per share in 2025 and reported a CNY0.276 2026 interim dividend. Its 2025 free cash flow was RMB18,389.7 million and real free cash flow was RMB18,347.362 million, but group cash is not automatically distributable to ordinary shareholders.
How much does Chalco pay in dividends?
Dividends rise above the historical norm in the base and bull cases, but remain cyclical. The base path moves from CNY0.45 to CNY0.38 per share; the bear path stays near CNY0.18; and the bull path reaches CNY0.62. The 2026 interim dividend was CNY0.276, while the 2025 total was CNY0.270. The base payout is anchored to the reported 36.55% distribution ratio and analyst 2026 profit expectations.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| Real free cash flow per share | 1.07 | 0.97 | 1.05 | 1.62 | |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.00 | |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 1.58 |
Is Chalco’s dividend covered by its cash?
Free cash flow depends on what the calculation deducts. The calculation here starts with operating cash and subtracts capital spending, lease payments and interest, producing RMB18,389.7 million in 2025. After stock pay, “real” free cash flow was RMB18,347.362 million. That is group cash, not automatically cash distributable to ordinary shareholders, because subsidiaries have other owners and the business has future obligations.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 18,389.7 | 16,611.38 | 16,637.198 | 17,954.791 | 27,508.985 |
| − Dividends paid | 4,426.153 | 2,779.503 | 617.817 | 544.891 | 0 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 10,129.439 | 10,498.467 | 13,902.929 | 14,896.862 | 26,929.938 |
| Paid out, % of real free cash flow | 24.1% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is higher because it includes lease and financing debts and does not subtract cash, while our count excludes leases and subtracts cash.
What could change Chalco’s dividend?
The November 30, 2026 shareholder circular is the next formal project marker. Evidence of Guinea delays, higher spending or weaker supply would move the forecast toward the bear case.
The forecast would move toward the bull case if capacity discipline sustained aluminum prices and utilization. Lower electricity intensity, successful Guinea delivery and stronger free cash flow would support higher dividends and valuation.
What is Chalco’s dividend yield against its share price?
A free-cash-flow yield measures the cash left after the spending included in the calculation as a percentage of the share value. Applying the stated 17.8% yield to the HK$122.14 billion H-share-equivalent value implies roughly HK$21.7 billion of annual cash flow. That is not automatically cash shareholders receive, because the result depends on how the calculation treats capital spending, leases, working capital and debt.
| Today (Oct 31, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 7.12 |
| Market value (calculated) | 122,141.882279 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 17.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 17.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.5% |
What this means. The dividend yield uses the latest completed year's regular interim and final dividends, rather than doubling the unusual 2026 interim dividend.