ZTO earnings date and guidance

MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: ZTO will release third-quarter results after the US market closes on November 17, 2026. Watch whether slower growth still produces enough profit and cash.

What has ZTO guided for 2026?

On August 19, 2026, management cut its parcel-growth forecast to 6.0%–10.0%, implying 40.8 billion–42.4 billion parcels for the year ending December 2026. China’s express-delivery industry grew 4.6% from January through August 2026, so pricing, customer selection and efficiency will matter more if volume remains subdued.

Management also promised an aggregate annual shareholder-return ratio of at least 50.0%. This is not a 50% dividend. The measure combines dividends with share repurchases and compares them with the previous year’s adjusted net income, meaning profit before share-based compensation and specified non-recurring items, with corresponding tax adjustments. ZTO had repurchased US$740 million by the end of the second quarter, so it recommended no interim dividend.

Has ZTO kept its promises?

The guidance record calls for caution. Across five annual outcomes, one first-range forecast was met or exceeded and four finished below it, although every result met or exceeded the final revised range. That record matters because ZTO has sometimes chosen profit over volume: in 2023, it abandoned its market-share target when the price competition required to achieve it no longer made economic sense.

How has ZTO's revenue and profit changed?

In 2025, gross profit fell 10.5%, and gross margin dropped from 31.0% to 25.0%. Operating income fell 11.1%. The larger direct-account business required much higher payments to partners, and administrative savings could not offset that pressure.

The eight-quarter sequence suggests recovery from the 2025 margin reset, not a return to the earlier peak. Q2 gross margin remained below September 2024’s 31.2%. Removing the latest tax benefit reduces half-year net-income growth from 31.5% to 22.7%.