China Unicom stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: China Unicom's weighted price is HKD8.17 in October 2027, a 65% total return including dividends. China Unicom's forecast hinges on employee costs normalising and computing and private-network growth becoming repeat, collected business.
Where could China Unicom's shares go?
The forecast’s central outcome is a recovery from today’s depressed price. The weighted price is HKD8.17 in October 2027, a 65% total return including dividends. It reaches HKD9.23 in October 2028, a 93% return. By October 2029, it reaches HKD10.46, a 126% return.
The final-date range is wide. The bear case gives HKD5.28. The bull case gives HKD16.41. Today’s price is HKD5.21. The bear probability is 25%. The base probability is 60%. The bull probability is 15%, because the recovery requires digital growth to become profitable cash flow.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 6.69 (+33 %) | 5.87 (+23 %) | 5.28 (+18 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 8.38 (+69 %) | 9.72 (+104 %) | 11.13 (+141 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 9.83 (+98 %) | 12.88 (+167 %) | 16.41 (+247 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 8.17 (+65 %) | 9.23 (+93 %) | 10.46 (+126 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average possible share price after giving more weight to the base case because it is more likely.
What has to go right for China Unicom's forecast?
EBITDA starts from an estimated RMB90 billion for 2026. Nine-month EBITDA was RMB70.2 billion, down 11.8%, while the 2021–2025 annual range stayed close to RMB99 billion. The base case therefore recovers gradually to RMB94 billion, RMB98 billion and RMB101 billion. The bear case falls to RMB88 billion, then RMB84 billion and RMB81 billion as weak connectivity revenue and costs overwhelm savings. The bull case reaches RMB98 billion, RMB105 billion and RMB112 billion if computing, private networks and network sharing produce repeat, collected revenue. Computing revenue grew 13% in the first half of 2026, and private-network revenue rose more than 50% in 2025, but margins remain undisclosed.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 94,000 (88,000 / 98,000) | 98,000 (84,000 / 105,000) | 101,000 (81,000 / 112,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 30,598 (30,598 / 30,598) | 30,598 (30,598 / 30,598) | 30,598 (30,598 / 30,598) |
| Dividends per share | 0.38 (0.20 / 0.41) | 0.40 (0.25 / 0.47) | 0.43 (0.30 / 0.52) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 1.50 (1.10 / 1.80) | 1.70 (0.90 / 2.30) | 1.90 (0.80 / 2.80) |
| Net debt | -76,610 (-77,110 / -79,025) | -85,871 (-76,960 / -93,145) | -97,211 (-72,280 / -112,735) |
What this means. The company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization includes its finance company, so it may not match the usual measure investors use.
How much cash does China Unicom really make?
Unicom defines free cash flow as operating cash flow less its own capital-expenditure measure, producing RMB36.0 billion in 2025. A stricter view deducts the RMB67.6 billion actually paid for assets and lease payments of RMB13.4 billion. That leaves RMB9.2 billion before recognising the economic cost of stock-based pay, and RMB9.0 billion after it.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 90,175 | 89,402 | 102,391 | 100,537 | 110,636 |
| − Capital spending | 67,641 | 75,740 | 79,375 | 72,470 | 72,047 |
| − Lease payments | 13,384 | 12,887 | 12,103 | 13,373 | 12,727 |
| = Free cash flow | 9,150 | 775 | 10,913 | 14,694 | 25,862 |
| − Stock pay | 118 | 247 | 282 | 55 | 136 |
| = Real free cash flow | 9,032 | 528 | 10,631 | 14,639 | 25,726 |
What does an investor pay for China Unicom today?
China Unicom looks cheap because its share price asks little for each unit of reported profit and net assets. The harder question is what that price assumes about cash, dividends, taxes and the returns on the next network it builds.