COLI dividend: cash coverage and payout history
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: COLI paid HK$0.50 per share for fiscal 2025 and HK$0.23 per share for the first half of 2026. In 2025, it paid RMB5,505.276 million, equal to 135.4% of free cash flow.
How much does COLI pay shareholders?
Dividends were steadier than free cash flow. COLI paid shareholders RMB7,498.121 million in 2024, equal to 22.7% of free cash flow. In 2025, it paid RMB5,505.276 million, equal to 135.4% of free cash flow. Including payments to minority project owners, distributions exceeded free cash flow by RMB2,548.105 million. Buybacks were zero from 2022 through 2025. The declared dividend later fell to HK$0.50 per share for fiscal 2025 and HK$0.23 per share for the first half of 2026.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Paid to minority owners, per share | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
What this means. In 2025 and 2022, the company paid shareholders more cash than its business generated, so it had to use other cash or borrow.
How much would COLI's dividend pay you?
HK$10,000 invested in COLI at its 3.9% dividend yield (our report of October 20, 2026) pays HK$390.00 in the first year, before tax. If its dividend per share keeps changing −15.5% a year, as it did from 2021 to 2025, and the dividends are reinvested, year 10 pays HK$104.17, with HK$2,244.75 received in all.
Before tax. Past dividend growth is not a promise. Information only, not investment advice.
Does COLI's cash cover its dividend?
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 4,067.417 | 33,088.165 | 18,008.237 | -27,446.711 | 4,370.869 |
| − Dividends paid | 5,505.276 | 7,498.121 | 7,565.651 | 10,878.864 | 10,732.163 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 108.413 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 24,881.332 | 9,279.418 | |||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 2,548.105 | 39,044.218 | 8,749.953 | ||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 135.4% | 22.7% | 42.0% | not meaningful | 248.0% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is lower because it leaves out some repayable loans and counts cash that is not freely available.
What could change COLI's dividend?
Base dividends hold at CNY0.43 per share each year, equivalent to the FY2025 HKD0.50 payout at the forecast exchange rate. The bear case falls to CNY0.30 in 2027 and CNY0.26 thereafter because dividends already exceeded free cash flow in 2025. The bull case rises to CNY0.51 in 2027 and CNY0.55 in 2028, reaching CNY0.60 in 2029 as collections recover. First-half operating cash flow improved to CNY28,516.589 million, but gearing rose from 29.2% to 34.2% in 2025.
During 2027–2029, margin stabilization and falling inventory charges would support the base-to-bull path. Persistent write-downs would do the opposite. Collections that fund construction, dividends and debt service would support the base case, while renewed working-capital outflows would raise net debt and compress the multiple.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 23,625 (18,600 / 27,750) | 24,300 (15,225 / 32,000) | 25,900 (14,000 / 36,550) |
| Dividends per share | 0.43 (0.30 / 0.51) | 0.43 (0.26 / 0.55) | 0.43 (0.26 / 0.60) |
| Net debt | 133,794 (151,704 / 124,947) | 132,248 (165,353 / 113,567) | 129,712 (176,942 / 101,731) |
What is COLI's dividend yield today?
Revenue fell 9.2% in 2025 and operating margin was 12.4%. The company’s own real free cash flow ranged from negative RMB27,317.871 million in 2022 to RMB33,088.165 million in 2024, then fell to RMB4,067.417 million in 2025. Net debt rose to RMB165,771.316 million, while diluted EPS fell to RMB1.16. At HK$12.78 and 0.3x price-to-book, the discount sits beside a 3.9% dividend yield and 3.4% free cash flow yield; dividends exceeded 2025 free cash flow.