China Resources Land stock forecast
The weighted scenario is HKD13.25 in October 2027 and HKD25.21 by October 2029. It hinges on whether development profit recovers while rental and asset-light results support the business.
Where could China Resources Land's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast’s central message is that the shares fall sharply first and recover only partway by October 2029. The weighted price is HKD13.25 in October 2027, a 53% loss including dividends. It reaches HKD19.17 in October 2028, a 30% loss. By October 2029, it reaches HKD25.21, still a 6% loss from today’s HKD31.06.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35% | 0.00 (-96%) | 0.00 (-92%) | 4.38 (-75%) |
| Base | 55% | 17.17 (-40%) | 23.69 (-15%) | 28.61 (+6%) |
| Bull | 10% | 38.06 (+27%) | 61.44 (+108%) | 79.38 (+171%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 13.25 (-53%) | 19.17 (-30%) | 25.21 (-6%) |
What must go right or wrong for China Resources Land?
Profit is the main swing factor. The base case uses normal operating profit of RMB41bn in the first period. It rises to RMB46bn and RMB49bn thereafter. The path begins below the historical cycle average of about RMB49.2bn because first-half 2026 segment results fell 32.5% year on year. Rental and asset-light results provide support, but development remains the largest exposure.
The bear case uses RMB30bn initially. It reaches RMB34bn and then RMB38bn, assuming weak development results persist. The bull case uses RMB48bn first. It rises to RMB55bn and RMB60bn, requiring stronger core-city sales, margin recovery and successful mall expansion. Management’s mall and housing targets support capacity, not profit guidance.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 41,000 (30,000 / 48,000) | 46,000 (34,000 / 55,000) | 49,000 (38,000 / 60,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 7,131 (7,131 / 7,131) | 7,131 (7,131 / 7,131) | 7,131 (7,131 / 7,131) |
| Dividends per share | 1.15 (1.05 / 1.25) | 1.20 (0.95 / 1.40) | 1.25 (0.90 / 1.55) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 7.50 (5.50 / 8.50) | 8.00 (5.50 / 10.00) | 8.50 (6.00 / 11.00) |
| Net debt | 203,168 (186,518 / 176,768) | 224,068 (196,718 / 176,768) | 242,668 (201,418 / 177,768) |
How much cash does China Resources Land really make?
Free cash flow rose from RMB19,382.466 million in 2024 to RMB22,724.039 million in 2025 even though operating cash flow fell. Capital spending fell to RMB6,787.676 million. The company therefore spent less, rather than clearly earning more from each project. Land and construction payments already included in operating cash flow should not be deducted again.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 22,724.039 | 19,382.466 | 12,045.323 | -32,084.932 | -31,287.722 |
| − Stock pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 22,724.039 | 19,382.466 | 12,045.323 | -32,084.932 | -31,287.722 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | -15.5% | -14.8% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | -15.5% | -14.8% |
What this means. The table’s free cash flow is lower than a basic version because it also subtracts lease payments and interest paid, which are real cash leaving the business.
What does an investor pay today for China Resources Land?
Free cash flow is cash left after selected investment spending, not cash automatically available for dividends. Buying less land can strengthen cash today while shrinking tomorrow’s development pipeline. At year-end 2025, borrowings were RMB281.47 billion against RMB116.99 billion of cash. The 37% payout from core profit provides room, but debt service and construction commitments come first.