WM earnings: guidance and what to watch
WM's next results are expected on October 27, 2026. Watch whether ordinary collection volumes improve while WM holds its profitability guidance.
What has WM guided for 2026?
For 2026, management guides to $26.275–$26.475 billion of revenue, $8.15–$8.25 billion of adjusted operating EBITDA and $3.75–$3.85 billion of free cash flow. That outlook assumes 5.4%–5.8% core price but only 3.2%–3.6% yield, putting customer retention and ordinary volume at the center of execution.
On July 28, WM lowered full-year revenue guidance to $26.275–$26.475 billion while keeping its adjusted operating EBITDA target at $8.15–$8.25 billion. Adjusted operating EBITDA is operating earnings before interest, taxes and selected accounting charges; free cash flow is cash left after operating cash flow, capital spending and asset-sale proceeds. Holding those targets with fewer sales dollars implies an adjusted margin of 31.0%–31.2%.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (US$ billions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 26.275 | 26.475 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Adjusted operating EBITDA (US$ billions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 8.15 | 8.25 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (US$ billions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 3.75 | 3.85 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Core price | Year to Dec 2026 | 5.4% | 5.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Yield | Year to Dec 2026 | 3.2% | 3.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
What this means. The rows marked illustrative scenarios show possible cash flow outcomes, not promises of what the company will actually report.
Has WM kept its past promises?
WM then promised to resume buybacks and bring leverage back to its target range. Leverage of 2.96 times means debt was about 2.96 times annual operating EBITDA, a measure of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. By midyear, WM had repurchased US$1 billion and reported leverage within its 2.5–3.0 target range. That is tangible progress, though the full-year promise still depends on cash generation and service performance.
What do WM's last eight quarters show?
That pattern has persisted. Revenue missed in four consecutive quarters from the third quarter of 2025 through the second quarter of 2026, while earnings missed twice and then beat twice. Higher prices, lower costs, automation or repurchases can protect profit while the sales trend weakens. A shop can produce more profit per remaining share without selling more goods.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,684 | 6,227 | 6,313 | 6,443 | 6,430 | 6,018 | 5,893 | 5,609 |
| Operating income | 1,253 | 1,113 | 1,155 | 989 | 1,151 | 1,013 | 919 | 1,119 |
| Net income | 785 | 723 | 742 | 603 | 726 | 637 | 598 | 760 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.95 | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.49 | 1.80 | 1.58 | 1.48 | 1.88 |
What this means. Revenue is not fully comparable across these quarters because the company bought other businesses that were added to later periods.
What should you watch in WM's next results?
The immediate checkpoint is the October 27, 2026 earnings release and the following day’s call. Investors should look for revenue meeting expectations, ordinary collection volumes improving and gas plants moving into commercial operation. Fourth-quarter results should also clarify whether 2027 earnings come from completed facilities or from further construction and favourable commodity prices.