Ventas stock forecast
Ventas's weighted price is US$105.64 in October 2029, with 25% probability to bear, 55% to base and 20% to bull. It hinges on operating gains and acquisitions overcoming labor, interest and dilution costs.
Where could Ventas's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is US$94.83 in October 2027, a 13% total return, and US$105.64 in October 2029, a 31% total return. The October 2029 cases assign 25% probability to bear, 55% to base and 20% to bull, with prices from US$69.91 to US$145.11.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 78.88 (-6 %) | 74.00 (-9 %) | 69.91 (-12 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 96.51 (+15 %) | 101.88 (+24 %) | 107.54 (+33 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 110.18 (+31 %) | 127.28 (+53 %) | 145.11 (+77 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 94.83 (+13 %) | 99.99 (+21 %) | 105.64 (+31 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Ventas?
The bear case starts at the guidance low and assumes a 5% per-share decline before earnings flatten. It produces $1,905 million in 2027 and $1,982 million in 2029. The bull starts at the guidance high and assumes 11% per-share growth before slowing to 10%, reaching $2,918 million in 2029. The bull requires operating gains and acquisitions to overcome labor, interest and dilution costs.
How much cash does Ventas really make?
Operating FAD, or funds available for distribution, is the more useful cash test. It begins with normalized FFO, adjusts noncash rent and amortization, and deducts specified recurring capital spending. For 2025, Operating FAD was $1,293,358 thousand. Ventas deducted $311,510 thousand of FAD capital expenditure in 2025. Dividends paid were $860,060 thousand in 2025. They represented approximately 66.5% of FAD in 2025.
In February 2026, the quarterly dividend increased to $0.52. Ventas also changed its normalized-FFO definition to exclude all noncash stock compensation. That change adds no cash and does not remove the ownership cost of equity awards.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized FFO attributable to common stockholders | 1,610,178 | 1,327,447 | 1,211,884 | 1,206,971 | 1,118,576 |
| Normalized FFO per share | 3.48 | 3.19 | 2.99 | 2.99 | 2.90 |
| Dividends paid | 860,060 | 740,326 | 723,559 | 720,319 | 686,888 |
| Dividend / normalized FFO per share | 55.2% | 56.4% | 60.2% | 60.2% | 62.1% |
What this means. The company’s normalized funds from operations is not adjusted funds from operations after property maintenance spending, so these payout percentages may make the dividend look safer than the cash left after upkeep really is.
What does an investor pay for Ventas today?
At US$85.86, Ventas trades at 23.3× FFO per share and yields 2.4%. FFO, or funds from operations, rose to US$3.50 per share in 2025 from US$2.65 in 2021, while average diluted shares increased 11.1% in 2025. Leverage improved from 7.2× to 5.2× net debt to EBITDAre; dividend coverage was 66.5% of Operating FAD.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 85.86 |
| Market value (calculated) | 44,041,574.384 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 23.3x |
| Price to normalized FFO (calculated) | 23.3x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.4% |