Welltower stock forecast
Welltower's probability-weighted price is $2.25 in October 2027. Welltower's outcome hinges on sustained operating growth after financing and dilution.
Where could Welltower's shares be by 2029?
The supplied probability-weighted price line is $2.25 in October 2027 and $2.34 in October 2028. It reaches $2.42 in October 2029, with the displayed returns including dividends. The bear probability is 30%. The base probability is 55%. The bull probability is 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 163.06 (-27%) | 157.76 (-28%) | 152.34 (-29%) |
| Base | 55% | 240.60 (+6%) | 246.73 (+11%) | 249.59 (+14%) |
| Bull | 15% | 289.02 (+28%) | 339.21 (+51%) | 395.56 (+78%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 2.25 (-0%) | 2.34 (+0%) | 2.42 (+0%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Welltower?
The latest quarter supports growth: normalized FFO reached $1.60 per share against $1.28 a year earlier. Management’s 2026 guidance midpoint is $4,743 million, while same-store SHO NOI grew 20.5% in June. The $15.5 billion investment programme and the $7.48 analyst estimate for 2027 support the base and bull paths, but Holiday’s delayed NOI recovery argues against treating acquisitions as automatic successes. Non-recurring gains and special incentive compensation are excluded from recurring earnings.
Affordability and staffing weaken occupancy and margins, acquired communities lease up slowly, and debt and equity fund expansion. FFO disappoints while dilution rises, so the multiple contracts. The price falls to $163.06 in October 2027 and $152.34 in October 2029. The probability is 30% because Holiday demonstrates that occupancy gains need not quickly restore NOI, while recent issuance makes per-share dilution tangible.
How much cash does Welltower really make?
The cash-flow statement provides a broad check. Operating cash was 2,881,677 in 2025, against dividends of 1,877,959. After consolidated recurring property spending of 374,457, the illustrative cushion was 629,261. Including renovations and other improvements of 675,806 would consume that cushion. The conclusion depends on which spending is maintenance and which is growth, but the question cannot be avoided.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 3,591,666 | 2,626,757 | 1,885,544 | 1,558,270 | 1,368,538 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure) | 5.29 | 4.32 | 3.64 | 3.35 | 3.21 |
| Dividends paid | 1,877,959 | 1,545,275 | 1,260,578 | 1,131,527 | 1,035,906 |
| AFFO payout ratio | 53.0% | 59.0% | 67.0% | 73.0% | 76.0% |
What this means. The trust’s adjusted funds from operations is its own profit measure and does not subtract recurring spending to maintain properties, so it may look higher than the cash truly available for dividends.
What does an investor pay for Welltower today?
Trailing FFO is $3.24 per share, which puts the stock at 70.8 times FFO. The memo’s adjusted denominator of $5.86 produces a 39.1-times AFFO multiple. AFFO usually subtracts recurring property spending, but companies define it differently. The $5.86 figure is an analytical estimate, not cash automatically paid to shareholders; the company emphasizes normalized FFO, and this AFFO reconciliation is not established.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 229.31 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 70.8x |
| Price to AFFO (calculated) | 39.1x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.5% |
| FFO per share, last four quarters | 3.24 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure), last four quarters | 5.86 |
What this means. The market value excludes some partnership units, so it may be lower than the company's full economic value.