Vulcan stock forecast
Vulcan's weighted price reaches $271.06 by October 2029. It hinges on whether infrastructure and large projects sustain volumes while energy pressure eases.
Where could Vulcan's shares be?
The forecast points to modest weighted returns, but the possible outcomes are widely dispersed. At October 2027, the weighted price is $246.54, a 3% loss with dividends. At October 2028, it is $255.36, a 1% gain. At October 2029, it reaches $271.06, an 8% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 187.78 (-26 %) | 156.53 (-38 %) | 155.19 (-37 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 251.54 (-1 %) | 259.64 (+3 %) | 265.53 (+6 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 306.23 (+20 %) | 367.13 (+44 %) | 431.09 (+70 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 246.54 (-3 %) | 255.36 (+1 %) | 271.06 (+8 %) |
What has to go right for Vulcan, and what could go wrong?
The base forecast assumes gradual improvement in shipments and pricing. Normal operating profit is $1,800 million in October 2027 and rises to $2,000 million by October 2029. Infrastructure and large projects must sustain volumes while energy pressure eases. Project delays and rising unit costs strengthen the bear case. The next scheduled release is October 29, 2026.
The bull case requires infrastructure and large private projects to sustain volumes while weather and energy costs improve. Pricing then flows more fully into unit profit, and stronger cash generation supports debt reduction and repurchases. The price reaches $306.23 by October 2027 and $431.09 by October 2029. The probability is 20% because the Q2 cost experience, uncertain acquisition returns, and finite buyback authorization make sustained expansion less dependable.
How much cash does Vulcan really make?
Stock compensation is another claim on the cash economics because employees receive an ownership interest. Vulcan recorded $63.1 million of stock pay in 2025; deducting it produces an analytical “real” free-cash-flow figure. Acquisitions remain outside Vulcan’s free-cash-flow definition, so a cash-generating company can still borrow heavily when it buys another quarry.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,813.0 | 1,409.6 | 1,536.8 | 1,148.2 | 1,011.9 |
| − Capital spending | 677.7 | 603.5 | 872.6 | 612.6 | 451.3 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,135.3 | 806.1 | 664.2 | 535.6 | 560.6 |
| − Stock pay | 63.1 | 53.4 | 63.2 | 41.1 | 34.7 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,072.2 | 752.7 | 601.0 | 494.5 | 525.9 |
What this means. There is no meaningful difference between the company's free cash flow and ours; our real free cash flow is lower because share-based pay gives employees part of the company even though it uses no cash.
What does an investor pay for Vulcan today?
The trailing P/E uses the last twelve months of earnings, while the forward P/E uses the next twelve months. The lower forward multiple therefore assumes improvement. It is not simply a cheaper price for the same profits. EBITDA is broader operating profit before interest, tax, and noncash asset charges, but it is not cash available to shareholders. Vulcan spent $702.9 million replacing or improving property, plant, and equipment in 2025, so quarry maintenance absorbs part of what EBITDA appears to produce. Using October 20, 2026 enterprise value and trailing adjusted EBITDA through June 2026 gives an illustrative EV/EBITDA multiple of about 15.9x.
| Today (Oct 20, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 257.45 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 30.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.2% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company’s debt and subtracts its cash, showing the cost of buying the whole business.