CRH stock forecast
CRH's weighted path is $68.89 in October 2027, a 16% total loss with dividends, then $100.81 in October 2029, a 27% gain. It hinges on growth that becomes cash without making debt fragile.
Where could CRH's shares be by 2029?
The forecast sees limited near-term upside but a stronger three-year outcome. The weighted price is $68.89 in October 2027, a 16% total loss with dividends. It reaches $83.80 in October 2028, a 4% gain. By October 2029, it reaches $100.81, a 27% gain. These returns start from today’s $83.63 price.
The 2029 range is wide: $58.89 in the bear case to $156.92 in the bull case. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case and 50% to the base case. The bull case receives 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 44.49 (-45 %) | 50.97 (-35 %) | 58.89 (-24 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 73.49 (-10 %) | 87.76 (+9 %) | 103.52 (+30 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 94.01 (+14 %) | 123.13 (+51 %) | 156.92 (+94 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 68.89 (-16 %) | 83.80 (+4 %) | 100.81 (+27 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction that is guaranteed to happen.
What has to go right for CRH, and what could go wrong?
The bear reflects the evidence that prices can rise while volumes fall: aggregates prices rose 10% in 2024 while volumes declined 3%. Higher energy costs and subdued housing support the lower margin path. The bull assumes faster infrastructure and industrial conversion, stabilising housing and the expected $175M of annual Arcosa savings by year three.
How much cash does CRH really make?
CRH spent $2,713 million on capital spending, leaving $2,912 million in the cash bridge after total capex. Deducting share-based pay produced “real free cash flow” of $2,769 million. This is the more demanding view because it recognizes all capital spending.
CRH’s adjusted free cash flow was $4,969 million. The company deducts maintenance capex but not growth capex, and adds disposal proceeds. In 2025, growth capex was $1,742 million while maintenance capex was $971 million. Growth spending may earn future returns, but the cash has already left the business.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,625 | 4,989 | 5,017 | 3,800 | 3,979 |
| − Capital spending | 2,713 | 2,578 | 1,817 | 1,523 | 1,554 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,912 | 2,411 | 3,200 | 2,277 | 2,425 |
| − Stock pay | 143 | 125 | 123 | 101 | 110 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,769 | 2,286 | 3,077 | 2,176 | 2,315 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is much higher because it adds back money from selling assets and counts only maintenance spending, while we subtract all capital spending.
What does an investor pay for CRH today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 83.63 |
| Market value (calculated) | 55,637.74 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 71,098.74 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.2% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company's debt after subtracting its cash.