Visa stock forecast: scenarios through October 2029
Visa's weighted forecast rises from $375.10 to $537.65 by October 2029. Visa's forecast hinges on retaining enough value from growth after incentives, routing pressure, renewals, and legal costs.
Where could Visa's shares be by October 2029?
The October 2029 range runs from $357.57 to $782.63. Today's price is $375.10. The bear carries 30% and the base 55%. The bull carries 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 390.95 (+5 %) | 375.39 (+2 %) | 357.57 (-2 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 459.63 (+23 %) | 511.65 (+38 %) | 569.07 (+54 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 518.52 (+39 %) | 639.79 (+72 %) | 782.63 (+112 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 447.86 (+20 %) | 489.99 (+32 %) | 537.65 (+46 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Visa?
The bear begins at $27,120 million and reaches $27,734 million in the second year. It ends at $28,310 million because incentives, routing pressure, renewals, and legal costs reduce revenue retention and margins. Incentives already grew faster than net revenue in the latest quarter. The bull starts at $29,100 million and reaches $33,984 million before ending at $39,400 million. It assumes stronger spending and durable adoption of Visa Direct, commercial products, and services, whose latest-quarter growth was strong.
How much cash does Visa really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow after capital spending. FY2025 operating cash flow was $23,059 million and capital spending was $1,482 million. Free cash flow was therefore $21,577 million, above reported net income of $20,058 million.
Stock-based pay is added back in the cash-flow statement because it is not an immediate cash payment. It is still valuable compensation and can dilute existing owners. Visa recorded $897 million of stock-based pay in FY2025. Deducting it leaves $20,680 million of economic free cash flow, or $10.52 per diluted share.
| Year to Sep 2025 | Year to Sep 2024 | Year to Sep 2023 | Year to Sep 2022 | Year to Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 23,059 | 19,950 | 20,755 | 18,849 | 15,227 |
| Capital spending | 1,482 | 1,257 | 1,059 | 970 | 705 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 21,577 | 18,693 | 19,696 | 17,879 | 14,522 |
| Stock-based pay | 897 | 850 | 765 | 602 | 542 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 20,680 | 17,843 | 18,931 | 17,277 | 13,980 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 10.52 | 8.79 | 9.08 | 8.09 | 6.39 |
What does an investor pay for Visa today?
At US$375.10 a share, Visa trades at 31.9 times trailing earnings. In other words, an investor pays US$31.90 for each dollar of the company’s recent profit. The forward P/E is 25.0 times because it uses forecast earnings, but that lower multiple is not automatically a bargain: reported earnings may include litigation or restructuring costs that forecasts remove.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 375.10 |
| Market value (calculated) | 703,666.22 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.0% |