PayPal stock forecast
PayPal's weighted scenario reaches $67.00 in October 2027; the bear case has 30% probability, the base case 50% and the bull case 20%. It hinges on turning payment volume into durable margin while containing credit losses.
Where could PayPal's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast reaches $67.00 in October 2027. That implies +19%. It reaches $105.20 in October 2029. That implies +89%. The bear case has 30% probability, the base case 50% and the bull case 20%.
PayPal’s weighted path is $67.00 in October 2027, or a 19% return including dividends. It reaches $83.74 in October 2028, a 50% return, and $105.20 in October 2029, an 89% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 50.42 (-10 %) | 53.20 (-4 %) | 58.22 (+6 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 70.63 (+26 %) | 88.07 (+57 %) | 109.40 (+96 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 82.79 (+47 %) | 118.73 (+112 %) | 165.16 (+195 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 67.00 (+19 %) | 83.74 (+50 %) | 105.20 (+89 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right for PayPal's base case—and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires branded checkout to keep losing shopper choice, while Braintree volume grows without enough transaction margin. Higher funding costs, credit losses or transformation spending then prevent savings from reaching profit. The first price is $50.42 in October 2027. The last is $58.22 in October 2029. Its probability is 30% because checkout grew only 2%, transaction margin dollars grew 1% and operating margin contracted.
The bull case requires checkout repair, stronger Venmo paid use, better-priced Braintree volume and savings that exceed reinvestment. The first price is $82.79. The final price is $165.16. Its probability is 20% because all four improvements must arrive together, while current transaction-margin conversion remains weak.
How much cash does PayPal really make?
In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was $1,983 million and FCF was $1,775 million. PayPal’s adjusted FCF was $1,832 million after excluding the timing difference between originating BNPL receivables held for sale and selling them. In the first half of 2026, loan sales produced $15.8 billion of cash. That cash is real, but it is not automatically recurring cash from payment processing.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,416 | 7,450 | 4,843 | 5,813 | 5,797 |
| − Capital spending | 852 | 683 | 623 | 706 | 908 |
| = Free cash flow | 5,564 | 6,767 | 4,220 | 5,107 | 4,889 |
| − Stock pay | 1,002 | 1,230 | 1,475 | 1,261 | 1,376 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,562 | 5,537 | 2,745 | 3,846 | 3,513 |
What this means. The free cash flow includes money PayPal lends to customers, so it is not only cash from its payment business.
What does an investor pay for PayPal today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 56.70 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 10.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 9.8x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 1.5x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 11.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.4% |
What this means. PayPal's free cash flow figures include its consumer and merchant lending business, not just cash from its payment services.