UPS stock forecast
The weighted forecast is $92.50 by October 2027, a 2% total return including dividends, and $112.15 by October 2029. It hinges on the smaller network becoming a more profitable one.
Where could UPS’s shares go in the forecast?
The weighted forecast is $92.50 by October 2027, a 2% total return including dividends, and $112.15 by October 2029. The cases assign 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
UPS is an earnings-recovery bet: the smaller network must become a more profitable one.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 61.24 (-30 %) | 52.24 (-34 %) | 56.34 (-25 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 97.44 (+7 %) | 106.03 (+22 %) | 116.90 (+40 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 118.00 (+28 %) | 142.77 (+60 %) | 168.83 (+94 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 92.50 (+2 %) | 99.93 (+16 %) | 112.15 (+35 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not another separate case.
What has to go right for UPS, and what could go wrong?
This recovery reflects higher yield, SMB and healthcare growth, and gradual savings after the Amazon reduction. Domestic revenue per package rose 9.3% while adjusted cost per package rose 8.0%. Automated buildings handled 68.5% of U.S. volume by June, compared with 64% a year earlier.
The bear case gives earnings of $5,220 million initially. They fall to $4,956 million before recovering to $5,073 million. It starts with $90 billion of revenue and a 5.8% margin. The next period uses $88.5 billion and 5.6%. The final period uses $89 billion and 5.7%. This assumes two million lost daily packages leave fixed costs stranded and replacement demand disappoints.
How much cash does UPS really make?
Capital spending was $3,685 million in 2025, leaving simple free cash flow of $4,765 million. After treating stock compensation as an economic cost, the remainder was $4,692 million, or 5.3% of revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 8,450 | 10,122 | 10,238 | 14,104 | 15,007 |
| − Capital spending | 3,685 | 3,909 | 5,158 | 4,769 | 4,194 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,765 | 6,213 | 5,080 | 9,335 | 10,813 |
| − Stock pay | 73 | 24 | 220 | 1,568 | 878 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,692 | 6,189 | 4,860 | 7,767 | 9,935 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 10.2% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is usually higher than ours because it adds back money from selling property and other investments, while our count leaves those out; in 2022, it also subtracts an item we do not.
What does an investor pay for UPS today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 97.50 |
| Market value (calculated) | 82,951.20 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 102,782.20 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.2x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.7% |
What this means. The next-twelve-month price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ estimated profit, not profit the company has already earned.