J.B. Hunt stock forecast
The weighted forecast points to $270.41 at October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on turning repricing and maturing dedicated fleets into durable cash generation.
Where could J.B. Hunt's shares go?
The bear case ends at $175.08. The bull case ends at $419.83, against $235.31 today. The base case is assigned a 52% probability. The bear case receives 30%, and the bull case 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 185.09 (-21 %) | 180.24 (-22 %) | 175.08 (-23 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 276.45 (+18 %) | 275.38 (+19 %) | 273.69 (+19 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 345.83 (+48 %) | 393.64 (+69 %) | 419.83 (+81 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 261.53 (+12 %) | 268.13 (+16 %) | 270.41 (+17 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is a probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right for J.B. Hunt, and what could go wrong?
The bear case begins at $830M and ends at $950M because costs may rise before customer rates reset. The bull case begins at $1,120M and ends at $1,324M because firmer pricing, profitable intermodal conversions, and cost savings could improve conversion. The latest quarter argues for caution: revenue rose 20.4%, but operating income rose only 1.8% and margin fell to 6.7%.
The base case assumes gradual repricing and maturing DCS fleets. It reaches $276.45 first and $273.69 last. Its 52% probability is highest because recovery is credible, but the latest margin compression argues against a rapid return to peak-cycle profitability.
How much cash does J.B. Hunt really make?
Working capital supplied 171,650 of cash in 2025. Removing that temporary release leaves 775,935 before the stock-compensation deduction. Stock compensation does not use current cash, but it transfers value to employees and dilutes shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,678,272 | 1,483,156 | 1,744,618 | 1,776,882 | 1,223,898 |
| − Capital spending | 730,687 | 865,373 | 1,862,431 | 1,540,796 | 947,563 |
| = Free cash flow | 947,585 | 617,783 | -117,813 | 236,086 | 276,335 |
| − Stock pay | 71,753 | 65,686 | 79,189 | 77,535 | 61,505 |
| = Real free cash flow | 875,832 | 552,097 | -197,002 | 158,551 | 214,830 |
What this means. The cash figures are built from quarterly reports added together, so each yearly number may not be a single number reported for the whole year.
What does an investor pay for J.B. Hunt today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, divides the share price by profit per share. Its trailing P/E reflects what the company recently earned; its lower forward P/E reflects what investors expect it to earn next. The gap is therefore a recovery claim, not a guarantee.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 235.31 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 33.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
What this means. The next-12-month price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ predicted profit, so it is an estimate rather than a fact.