United earnings date and guidance
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: United's next results are expected on January 19, 2027. Watch whether stronger revenue covers higher fuel and continued investment.
What has United guided for 2026?
For the quarter ending December 2026, management guides to adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.50–$1.50. It assumes fuel costs $4.80 a gallon. Adjusted EPS is profit per share after specified items are removed, so it helps compare operations but is not cash available to spend. The revenue-growth guide is 20.0%, showing how strong sales can coexist with modest profit when fuel absorbs much of each extra ticket dollar.
The spending plan remains large. United guides to $7.5 billion of adjusted capital expenditure in 2026, alongside Starlink availability of 61.0% by year-end 2026. It expects availability to reach 87.0% by June 1, 2027. Its year-end plan calls for 1,166 mainline aircraft, though a counted aircraft may not be ready for passengers.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted earnings per share | Quarter to Dec 2026 | 0.50 | 1.50 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Average aircraft fuel price per gallon | Quarter to Dec 2026 | 4.80 | 4.80 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Adjusted total capital expenditures (in billions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 7.5 | 7.5 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| total operating revenue growth | Quarter to Dec 2026 | 20.0% | Oct 20, 2026 | |
| Starlink availability by year end 2026 | Year end 2026 | 61.0% | 61.0% | Oct 20, 2026 |
What this means. “Over 20%” means the company expects revenue growth to be more than 20%, not exactly 20%.
Has United kept its past promises?
The quarterly record earns a qualified 4/5. United met or exceeded all eight initial quarterly adjusted-EPS ranges checked. Six landed within range and two beat it. Profit sharing had one shortfall in seven quarters, while the mainline fleet finished below plan in three of eight checks. Annual guidance required larger revisions, so short-term forecasting has been more dependable than long-term delivery.
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted earnings per share | 8 quarters | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Profit Sharing | 7 quarters | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Total Mainline Aircraft | 8 quarters | 5 | 0 | 3 |
What has happened to United's revenue and profit over the last eight quarters?
Revenue reached $17,875 million, up from $15,225 million in September 2025. Operating income rose only 3.7%, so the operating margin fell from 9.2% to 8.1%. Capacity increased 1.3%, while total revenue per seat-mile increased 15.9%, showing much better monetization than in 2025.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,875 | 17,672 | 14,608 | 15,397 | 15,225 | 15,236 | 13,213 | 14,695 |
| Operating income | 1,446 | 1,096 | 997 | 1,386 | 1,395 | 1,325 | 607 | 1,503 |
| Net income | 1,029 | 805 | 699 | 1,044 | 949 | 973 | 387 | 985 |
| EPS, diluted | 3.14 | 2.46 | 2.14 | 3.19 | 2.90 | 2.97 | 1.16 | 2.95 |
What this means. Free cash flow can be negative even when the company reports a profit because it spent more cash on equipment and buildings than its daily business brought in.
What should people watch in United's next results?
Q4 2026 is the first checkpoint. Watch fares, fuel, removed flights and remaining capital spending together. A weak result could indicate either a temporary fuel squeeze or less cash available for debt repayment.