MPS stock forecast
MPS's weighted forecast points to $699.34 in October 2027, with a 25% bear case, a 55% base case, and a 20% bull case. It hinges on growth becoming durable earnings at a lower valuation multiple.
Where could MPS's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast points to $699.34 in October 2027, a 42% loss, if growth fails to become durable earnings at a lower valuation multiple. Including dividends, it reaches $756.65 in October 2029, a 35% loss. Management guides to revenue of $1,140 million to $1,160 million for the quarter to September 2026. It guides to GAAP gross margin of 55.2% to 55.8%. Management also raised its minimum 2026 Enterprise Data growth target to 130%, citing customer ramps, platform refreshes and higher module content.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 426.10 (-64 %) | 360.05 (-69 %) | 328.94 (-71 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 712.33 (-41 %) | 729.60 (-38 %) | 730.31 (-37 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1005.17 (-16 %) | 1197.93 (+1 %) | 1363.71 (+16 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 699.34 (-42 %) | 730.88 (-38 %) | 756.65 (-35 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a fourth outcome.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for MPS?
The bear case carries a 25% probability, and the base case 55%. The bull case carries 20%. The October 29, 2026 Q3 report will test demand and margins against guidance and analyst expectations. By the end of 2026, management expects to remediate the deferred-tax control weakness. Early 2027 volume production under the GlobalFoundries agreement, plus 800V qualification and automotive launches, will test whether new architectures become sales. MPWR’s valuation requires server and module growth to become durable cash earnings.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 1,188 (966 / 1,326) | 1,375 (1,012 / 1,701) | 1,575 (1,056 / 2,090) |
| Shares (millions) | 50.01 (49.88 / 50.13) | 50.88 (50.62 / 51.12) | 51.76 (51.37 / 52.11) |
| Dividends per share | 8.00 (8.00 / 8.00) | 10.00 (8.00 / 12.00) | 12.00 (8.00 / 16.00) |
| Price to earnings | 30.00 (22.00 / 38.00) | 27.00 (18.00 / 36.00) | 24.00 (16.00 / 34.00) |
How much cash does MPS really make?
Stock compensation does not leave the company as cash when granted, but it gives employees ownership. MPS reported $227.491 million of stock compensation in 2025. Subtracting that amount from free cash flow leaves $438.698 million under the memo’s shareholder-minded measure.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 838,202 | 788,410 | 638,213 | 246,674 | 320,010 |
| − Capital spending | 172,013 | 146,118 | 57,578 | 58,843 | 94,420 |
| = Free cash flow | 666,189 | 642,292 | 580,635 | 187,831 | 225,590 |
| − Stock pay | 227,491 | 205,640 | 149,711 | 160,992 | 123,479 |
| = Real free cash flow | 438,698 | 436,652 | 430,924 | 26,839 | 102,111 |
What this means. The company does not pay stock-based compensation in cash, but we subtract it because giving employees shares reduces the portion of the company left for shareholders.
What does an investor pay for MPS today?
P/E compares a share price with the company’s annual profit per share. If a share costs $100 and the company earns $2 per share, the P/E is 50. A trailing P/E uses the last twelve months; a forward P/E uses forecast earnings. The difference between MPS’s two measures says investors expect its earnings base to expand substantially. It does not mean MPS receives that multiple as cash.