Teradyne stock forecast
The weighted value is $302.86 in October 2027, a 7% loss including dividends. It hinges on qualified compute and memory demand becoming durable, profitable growth.
Where could Teradyne’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted value is $302.86 in October 2027. That equals a 7% loss including dividends. By October 2029, weighted value reaches $336.98. That equals a 4% gain. Bear probability is 28%. Base probability is 54%; bull probability is 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 166.35 (-49 %) | 130.68 (-59 %) | 145.97 (-55 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 322.05 (-1 %) | 331.99 (+2 %) | 339.03 (+5 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 457.64 (+41 %) | 553.55 (+71 %) | 627.96 (+94 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 302.86 (-7 %) | 315.50 (-3 %) | 336.98 (+4 %) |
What has to go right for Teradyne, and what could go wrong?
The bear case depends on customers absorbing capacity and utilization weakening. The bull case requires AI and memory ramps, production wins and stronger robotics execution. The outcome turns on qualified compute programs reaching volume, customers needing new tester capacity, and robotics producing repeat deployments rather than channel shipments alone.
How much cash does Teradyne really make?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending from operating cash. Teradyne used $224.0 million for property, plant and equipment in 2025 as it prepared for Semiconductor Test capacity needs. Stock compensation was $64.0 million: it is not a current cash payment, but it can dilute owners, so subtracting it produces a stricter measure of cash available to them.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 674,415 | 672,176 | 585,231 | 577,923 | 1,098,366 |
| − Capital spending | 224,009 | 198,095 | 159,642 | 163,249 | 132,472 |
| = Free cash flow | 450,406 | 474,081 | 425,589 | 414,674 | 965,894 |
| − Stock pay | 63,999 | 60,122 | 57,682 | 48,228 | 45,643 |
| = Real free cash flow | 386,407 | 413,959 | 367,907 | 366,446 | 920,251 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 12.1% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 24.9% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is slightly different from ours because it uses its own rules and rounds the figures, so the two counts are not exactly the same.
What does an investor pay for Teradyne today?
P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, divides the share price by company profit. Trailing P/E uses the last twelve months of earnings, while forward P/E uses an estimate. A large one-time customer order can make profit jump and make P/E look cheap even though normal earning power has not changed. “Through-cycle” analysis asks what profits look like across strong and weak periods. That matters because Teradyne reported record revenue in the second quarter of 2026 as artificial-intelligence demand strengthened.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 325.00 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 44.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 35.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.8% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ predicted profit, so it may be wrong.