Rockwell stock forecast
The weighted scenario points to a 1% loss including dividends by October 2027 and a 13% return by October 2029. It hinges on continued recovery, profitable growth and cash generation without a sharp valuation reset.
Where could Rockwell’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $415.86 in October 2027, a 1% loss including dividends. It reaches $465.44 in October 2029, a 13% return including dividends. The forecast assigns 25% probability to the bear case and 55% to base. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 341.30 (-19 %) | 322.39 (-22 %) | 306.86 (-24 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 424.70 (+1 %) | 449.25 (+8 %) | 477.70 (+16 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 484.73 (+15 %) | 568.67 (+36 %) | 629.97 (+52 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 415.86 (-1 %) | 441.42 (+6 %) | 465.44 (+13 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Rockwell?
The bear case requires customers to resume destocking, defer capacity and resist price increases while input costs rise. Operating profit weakens, the multiple contracts and the shares fall from $341.30 in October 2027 to $306.86 in October 2029. Its probability is 25% because FY2024 already produced an 8.8% sales decline, and Lifecycle Services book-to-bill was below one in Q3 FY2026.
The bull case requires modernization to broaden across semiconductors, warehouses and data centers. Higher volume, favorable mix, recurring software and productivity lift operating profit to $2,464 million by 2029, while buybacks accelerate. The shares rise from $484.73 to $629.97. Its probability is 20% because the outcome depends on several uncertain drivers working together, including software economics and the five-year $2 billion expansion.
How much cash does Rockwell really make?
Rockwell generates substantial cash, but FY2025 benefited from working-capital timing. Cash from operations was $1,544 million in FY2025, compared with net income of $869 million.
Timing also helped. A $70 million pension contribution reduced cash without creating a new earnings charge, and incentive payments moved between reporting years. Subtracting $85 million of stock compensation gives an analytical “real free cash flow” figure, because stock pay can dilute owners.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,544 | 864 | 1,374 | 823.1 | 1,261.0 |
| Of which, freed from working capital | 213 | 164.9 | |||
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 424 | 122 | 529.7 | ||
| − Capital spending | 186 | 225 | 161 | 141.1 | 120.3 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,358 | 639 | 1,213 | 682.0 | 1,140.7 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,273 | 539 | 1,125 | 613.9 | 1,089.0 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash today but gives away part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Rockwell today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 426.23 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 39.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 28.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.3% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ expected profits, so it could be wrong if the company earns more or less than expected.